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Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Dundalk FC

Sports · Polymarket · Called YES, verified LOSS · Jul 24, 2026
View the original Polymarket market →
Verified Outcome
LOSS
PillarLab called Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC to win (YES @ 67%).
Result: Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC did not win. The call was wrong.
Analyzed: Jul 24, 2026, 6:33 PM UTC
Market resolved: Jul 24, 2026, 11:04 PM UTC
Called 5h before resolution. The call was made before the outcome was known.

https://polymarket.com/sports/irl1/irl1-stp-dun-2026-07-24

PillarLab
📡 Fetching Polymarket data...
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✅ Got data from Polymarket API!0.6s
PillarLab
🔍 Step 1: Detecting market type and category...
PillarLab
✅ Category: ⚽ SPORTS ✅ Type: MULTI_CANDIDATE 📊 Market: Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Dundalk FC 📅 Date: 2026-07-24T19:00:00Z 💰 Volume: $1,937 Current Odds: • Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC: 67% • Draw (Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Dundalk FC): 20% • Dundalk FC: 14%3.5s
PillarLab
⏳ Step 2: Gathering intelligence (parallel)...
PillarLab
✅ Intelligence gathered: Vegas Lines · Injury Report · Team Stats · Reddit Sentiment · Situational Factors · PillarScore · Handle Split (Public vs Sharp) · Candidate Dossiers (case for + case against, every candidate ≥2%)20.6s
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🧠 Step 3: Deep Analysing across all 9 pillars — hang tight, ~20s...
PillarLab

📊 Market Summary

⚽ Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Dundalk FC

Team/PlayerCurrent Odds
Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC67%
Draw (Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Dundalk FC)20%
Dundalk FC14%

3 options total

PillarLab

🎯 Best Trade

  • Action: Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC — YES @ 67%

  • Confidence: 🟡 MEDIUM · Uncertainty: LOW

  • Why: this is a 3-way match-odds market — a draw is a real, common outcome in football (roughly 25-27% of matches historically), so the bar for calling the favorite outright is higher than in a straight two-way bet. Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC clears it here at 67%, well clear of Draw (Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Dundalk FC) (20%), the next-most-likely outcome.

  • Strong home form with recent multi-goal wins over top-half opponents.
  • Already beat Dundalk 4-0 earlier this season.
  • No key injury concerns.
  • Note: this is a group-stage/league fixture — there is no extra time here. A draw at the end of 90 minutes IS the final result for this match, not a step toward a decider.
PillarLab

📈 Where the Market Stands

OptionMarketRead
Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC67%🟢 FAVORED
Draw (Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Dundalk FC)20%⚪ TOSS-UP
Dundalk FC14%🔴 TRAILING

I price with the market — 🟢 favored · 🔴 trailing. The analysis below is the why.

PillarLab

🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Sharp Trading Method)

📊 1. Vegas Line

My Vegas Line reads Saint Patrick's Athletic as the heavy favorite at 67%, consistent with home advantage and recent form.

📈 2. PillarScore

St Pat's last-13 includes wins over Bohemian, Galway, and Derry City, while their losses came against league leaders Shelbourne and Waterford; Dundalk's wins include a 5-0 vs Waterford and 1-0 vs Shamrock Rovers, but their inconsistency is reflected in losses to Drogheda and Shelbourne.

🏥 3. Injury Report

Dundalk are missing goalkeeper Conor Kearns (knee), plus Norman Garbett and Vinnie Leonard; St Pat's have no key injury reports.

📱 4. Reddit Sentiment

Reddit fixture thread exists but no strong consensus or hype; neutral.

🔢 5. Team Stats & Form

St Pat's recent home form includes three multi-goal wins, though they lost 0-1 to Waterford away and to Shelbourne at home; Dundalk's form is inconsistent—winning 5-0 vs Waterford but losing to Drogheda and Shelbourne.

🌤️ 6. Situational Factors

St Pat's have home advantage at Richmond Park, where they have strong recent results; no notable travel or weather edge for Dundalk.

💰 7. Handle Split (Public vs Sharp)

No public handle split data available for this fixture; the market appears orderly without sharp/public divergence.

⏰ 8. Time Decay

LOW - no significant news expected before kickoff; prices reflect current info.

⚡ 9. Contrarian Check

Dundalk are not without hope—they beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0 and won 5-0 vs Waterford—but their inconsistency and missing goalkeeper make the 14% price fair.

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⚽ Sports (9 Pillars)

  1. 1.Vegas Lines → spread, moneyline, totals
  2. 2.Line Movement → sharp money signals
  3. 3.Injury Reports → player status tracking
  4. 4.Reddit Sentiment → r/sportsbook consensus
  5. 5.Team Statistics → form, H2H, splits
  6. 6.Situational Factors → rest, travel, schedule
  7. 7.Handle Splits → public vs sharp money
  8. 8.Time Decay → late line movement
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🌦️ Weather (9 Pillars)

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