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Polymarket 
Kalshi 
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
$5.88M Vol.
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
$5.82M Vol.
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$4.33M Vol.
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$3.27M Vol.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$2.97M Vol.
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
$1.63M Vol.
Eurovision Winner 2026
$1.44M Vol.
2026 NBA Champion
$1.39M Vol.
Presidential Election Winner 2028
$989K Vol.
Next French Presidential Election
$971K Vol.
F1 Drivers' Champion
$924K Vol.
UEFA Champions League Winner
$815K Vol.
Fed Decision in June?
$687K Vol.
California Governor Election Winner
$485K Vol.
Brazil Presidential Election
$466K Vol.
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
$454K Vol.
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$418K Vol.
MLB World Series Champion 2026
$414K Vol.
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
$379K Vol.
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$352K Vol.
Fire on every live NBA market — spreads, props, totals, futures.
Live Odds Tracker
Universal · Live
Steam & line movement across all major books in real-time.
Live Social & Press Intel
Universal · Live
Twitter/X, Reddit, injury reports & press conference signals.
Pre-Game vs Reality Delta
Universal · Live
Tracks how live game data deviates from pre-game projections.
Player Psychology & Momentum
Universal · Live
Crowd sentiment + momentum shifts after key in-game events.
Foul Trouble & Rotation Monitor
NBA · Basketball
Foul trouble, lineup changes & rotation impact on spread.
Pace & Scoring Run Tracker
NBA · Basketball
Live pace shifts, scoring runs & how they affect the total.
Three-Point & Shooting Trends
NBA · Basketball
3PT volume, shooting variance & regression signals mid-game.
Fatigue & Minutes Load
NBA · Basketball
Back-to-backs, minutes load & rest-vs-rust impact on performance.
Dominate every spread, prop, and futures market across all 32 teams.
Live Odds Tracker
Universal · Live
Steam & line movement across all major books in real-time.
Live Social & Press Intel
Universal · Live
Twitter/X, Reddit, injury reports & press conference signals.
Pre-Game vs Reality Delta
Universal · Live
Tracks how live game data deviates from pre-game projections.
Player Psychology & Momentum
Universal · Live
Crowd sentiment + momentum shifts after key in-game events.
Red Zone Efficiency Tracker
NFL · Football
TD probability in red zone based on O-line, play-call tendencies & personnel.
Turnover Propensity Model
NFL · Football
Fumble & INT likelihood based on pressure rates and ball security ratings.
Pass Rush vs Protection Mismatch
NFL · Football
Edge rusher matchups vs O-line ratings — key spread and total driver.
Weather & Field Condition Impact
NFL · Football
Wind speed, cold & turf type effect on scoring totals and QB performance.
Break down every run line, total, and player prop from first pitch to final out.
Live Odds Tracker
Universal · Live
Steam & line movement across all major books in real-time.
Live Social & Press Intel
Universal · Live
Twitter/X, Reddit, injury reports & press conference signals.
Pre-Game vs Reality Delta
Universal · Live
Tracks how live game data deviates from pre-game projections.
Player Psychology & Momentum
Universal · Live
Crowd sentiment + momentum shifts after key in-game events.
Starting Pitcher Form Tracker
MLB · Baseball
ERA trends, recent form, platoon splits & pitch count fatigue signals.
Bullpen Fatigue Analyzer
MLB · Baseball
Reliever availability based on recent usage, leverage & matchup history.
Batting Order Splits & Matchups
MLB · Baseball
L/R splits, BABIP & exit velocity matchups across the batting order.
Park Factor & Wind Tracker
MLB · Baseball
Ballpark HR rates, foul territory & real-time wind impact on totals.
Analyze every puck line, total, and player prop across the full NHL season.
Live Odds Tracker
Universal · Live
Steam & line movement across all major books in real-time.
Live Social & Press Intel
Universal · Live
Twitter/X, Reddit, injury reports & press conference signals.
Pre-Game vs Reality Delta
Universal · Live
Tracks how live game data deviates from pre-game projections.
Player Psychology & Momentum
Universal · Live
Crowd sentiment + momentum shifts after key in-game events.
Goalie Performance & Save %
NHL · Hockey
Recent save %, back-to-back fatigue & head-to-head vs opposing offenses.
Power Play vs Penalty Kill
NHL · Hockey
PP% vs PK% efficiency gap and its puck line and total implications.
Line Matching Analyzer
NHL · Hockey
Home coach line-matching advantages and line chemistry vs shot share.
Shot Quality & Fenwick Score
NHL · Hockey
High-danger chances, xG differential & Corsi trends over last 10 games.
Fire on every 1X2, total goals, BTTS, and player prop across all major leagues.
Live Odds Tracker
Universal · Live
Steam & line movement across all major books in real-time.
Live Social & Press Intel
Universal · Live
Twitter/X, Reddit, injury reports & press conference signals.
Pre-Game vs Reality Delta
Universal · Live
Tracks how live game data deviates from pre-game projections.
Player Psychology & Momentum
Universal · Live
Crowd sentiment + momentum shifts after key in-game events.
xG Expected Goals Model
Soccer · Football
Shot quality, xG differential & finishing efficiency vs opponents.
Formation & Press Intensity
Soccer · Football
High vs low block formations and pressing triggers affecting scoring rates.
Set Piece Efficiency Analyzer
Soccer · Football
Corner, free kick & penalty conversion rates by team and taker.
Referee Tendency & Card Risk
Soccer · Football
Referee card frequency, foul tolerance & how it impacts match tempo.
Analyze every moneyline, method of victory, and round betting market.
Live Odds Tracker
Universal · Live
Steam & line movement across all major books in real-time.
Live Social & Press Intel
Universal · Live
Twitter/X, Reddit, injury reports & press conference signals.
Pre-Game vs Reality Delta
Universal · Live
Tracks how live game data deviates from pre-game projections.
Player Psychology & Momentum
Universal · Live
Crowd sentiment + momentum shifts after key in-game events.
Fighter Style Clash Analyzer
MMA · Combat Sports
Striker vs grappler matchup dynamics — how style determines outcome probability.
Cardio & Gas Tank Tracker
MMA · Combat Sports
Late-round pace, finishing rate & historical cardio at this competition level.
Ground Game vs Striking Edge
MMA · Combat Sports
Takedown accuracy, submission defense & significant strike differentials.
Weight Cut & Rehydration Monitor
MMA · Combat Sports
Severe weight cuts impacting durability, power & early-round performance.
Break down every winner market, top-5/10/20, and matchup prop on tour.
Live Odds Tracker
Universal · Live
Steam & line movement across all major books in real-time.
Live Social & Press Intel
Universal · Live
Twitter/X, Reddit, injury reports & press conference signals.
Pre-Game vs Reality Delta
Universal · Live
Tracks how live game data deviates from pre-game projections.
Player Psychology & Momentum
Universal · Live
Crowd sentiment + momentum shifts after key in-game events.
Course Fit Analyzer
Golf · PGA Tour
Player stats vs course profile — driving accuracy, approach distance & rough penalty.
Strokes Gained Tracker
Golf · PGA Tour
SG: Off-the-Tee, Approach, Around-the-Green & Putting trends last 6 rounds.
Wind & Weather Conditions
Golf · PGA Tour
Wind speed, direction & rain effect on scoring average by player type.
Cut Line Probability Model
Golf · PGA Tour
Historical cut line for this course + field strength adjustment for cut props.
All 13 hardcoded weather pillars fire on every meteorological market.
Base Rate Anchor
Weather · Climate
Historical temperature/event frequency for this exact date and location over 50+ years.
Forecast Model Consensus
Weather · Climate
GFS, ECMWF & NAM model agreement — consensus vs outlier detection.
Ensemble Spread Uncertainty
Weather · Climate
Wide ensemble spread signals high uncertainty and mispriced markets.
Teleconnection Influence Mapper
Weather · Climate
ENSO, NAO & PNA index correlations with temperature and precipitation anomalies.
Calibration Curve Plotter
Weather · Climate
How often Kalshi weather market favorites actually win vs their implied probability.
Market Efficiency Scanner
Weather · Climate
Detecting mispriced temperature buckets vs adjacent outcomes using NWS point forecasts.
Prediction Horizon Viability
Weather · Climate
Hours until outcome — predictive half-life and optimal entry timing.
True Randomness Detector
Weather · Climate
Statistical test for randomness in weather events to identify exploitable patterns.
What is PillarLab?
You know how ChatGPT gives you a nice, polished answer to basically anything? Great for emails, terrible for event contracts.
When you ask it "Should I take Polymarket's 'No' at 72%?" it gives you some surface-level take from outdated training data. No live market integration, no structured methodology, no edge detection.
PillarLab is different.
I run 1,700+ specialized analysis frameworks across prediction markets. When you paste a Polymarket or Kalshi link, I pull live odds, run 10-12 domain-specific "pillars" in parallel, cross-reference historical patterns, detect mispricings, calculate expected value, and deliver a structured verdict — all in about 30 seconds.
Not generic answers. Structured analysis with real data, edge detection, and actionable intelligence.
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhighny/highest-temperature-in-nyc
Kalshi | $35.2K volume | 45° to 46° at 44%
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| 45° to 46° | 44% |
| 43° to 44° | 31% |
| 47° to 48° | 17% |
| 42° or below | 6% |
| 49° to 50° | 5% |
| 51° or above | 3% |
The market is pricing in a chilly March 19th with a 45% lean toward the 45°-46° range. Short-term forecasts show a weak weather system moving through with flurries and light rain, keeping a lid on any early spring warmth.
While historical averages for this date sit around 48°-50°, the immediate "cold shot" from a lingering polar vortex is suppressing the odds. The crowd is betting on the cold front, but if the rain clears by midday, the high March sun angle can easily spike temps 5 degrees above forecast in a matter of hours.
Assessment: Just 13 points between leaders. A single headline could flip this. Decent volume at $35.2K — crowd has some conviction.
Ready to go deeper? Here's what I'll analyze (11 pillars, 12 credits):
| Pillar | What It Does |
|---|---|
| Base Rate Anchor | Historical March 19th high temperatures in NYC over the last 50-100 years |
| Precedent Outcome Distribution | Frequency distribution of daily high temps for 3rd week of March |
| Metric Persistence Analyzer | Persistence of warming trends in NYC spring temperatures |
| Implied Probability Decoder | Normalizing probabilities across 6 temperature range candidates |
| Calibration Curve Plotter | How often Kalshi weather markets hit the 'favored' range vs outliers |
| Market Efficiency Scanner | Scanning for mispricings between adjacent temperature buckets |
| Prediction Horizon Viability | Assessing predictive validity at current lead time |
| True Randomness Detector | Statistical test for randomness in daily high temperature variance |
| Teleconnection Influence Mapper | Correlation between ENSO/NAO indices and March 19th temp anomalies |
| Recovery Time Estimator | Modeling recovery scenarios based on drawdown and historical edge |
| Ruin Probability Calculator | Monte Carlo simulation of bankroll survival probability |
Run it
🚀 Running batch analysis with 11 pillars in parallel...
| Outcome | Market | AI Est. | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° to 44° | 31% | 68% | +37% ↗ | UNDER |
| 45° to 46° | 44% | 18% | -26% ↘ | OVER |
| 42° or below | 6% | 8% | +2% — | FAIR |
AI model estimates can change based on market news, event dynamics, or new data. These are not predictions.
↗ Undervalued · ↘ Overvalued · — Fair
| Context |
|---|
| Sudden solar clearing could spike temperatures 2-3 degrees in the final heating hour. |
| The market is pricing a rare 2-degree band as a near-coin-flip, ignoring historical volatility. |
| Calibration Curve Plotter: The actual win rate for this bucket is 37.8%, compared to the current 44% market price. |
| Base Rate Anchor: The temperature fell within the 45-46° range in 4 out of 31 years, a frequency of 12.9%. |
| Markets are efficient and reflect collective intelligence. Gaps identified here may close rapidly or reflect information we cannot capture. |
AI Model View: 43° to 44° (undervalued by 37%) | Confidence: HIGH
Reasoning: Direct alignment with NWS point forecast (44°F) and current METAR observations showing a plateau at 44°F as of 1:00 PM. Historical precedent shows 71% of March days starting below 33°F with a 44°F forecast resolve in the 43-44° range.
| Outcome | Market | AI Est. | Edge | EV/$100 | Kelly % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° to 44° | 31% | 68% | +37% | ✅ $119.35 | 53.0% | POSITIVE EV |
| 45° to 46° | 44% | 18% | -26% | ❌ $-59.09 | — | NEGATIVE EV |
🔴 Scenario 1: Cloud cover increases to 'Overcast' before 3:00 PM
| Probability | ████░░░░░░ 40% |
| Impact | 43° to 44°: 85% (+17%) |
| Urgency | 🔴 ACT NOW |
| Trigger | NWS Hourly Weather Graph showing >80% sky cover |
| Action | Plan |
|---|---|
| ✅ Triggered | Aggressively buy 43-44° range up to 65¢; sell any remaining 45-46° positions. |
| ❌ Not triggered | Hold 43-44° position; monitor for unexpected solar radiation spikes. |
| 🚪 Dead when | If sky clears to <25% cover, the 45-46° range becomes a viable threat. |
🔗 Reduces 45-46° probability to <5%.
🔴 Scenario 2: 1:00 PM METAR report shows 45°F
| Probability | ██░░░░░░░░ 15% |
| Impact | 45° to 46°: 70% (+26%) |
| Urgency | 🔴 ACT NOW |
| Trigger | KNYC METAR station update at 12:51 PM or 1:51 PM |
| Action | Plan |
|---|---|
| ✅ Triggered | Exit 43-44° position immediately; the 'warm tail' is manifesting. |
| ❌ Not triggered | Maintain 43-44° position; the plateau at 44°F is holding. |
| 🚪 Dead when | If 2:00 PM reading remains 44°F, the 43-44° outcome is 90% locked. |
🔗 Invalidates the 'Cold Air Retention' thesis from Pillar 11.
| Relevance | Pattern | Sample | Hit Rate | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 HIGH | March days starting <33°F with NWS forecast of 44°F | 42 events | 71% | Precedent Outcome Distribution |
| 🟡 MED | Kalshi weather favorite vs. NWS point forecast divergence | 115 markets | 64% | Market Efficiency Scanner |
| Candidate | Metric | Current | Baseline | Z-Score | Direction | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° to 46° | Implied Probability vs. Climatology | 44% | 12.9% | +2.4σ | 📈 OVERPERFORMING | Market is pricing a rare 2-degree band as a near-coin-flip, ignoring historical volatility. |
Z-Score > 2.0σ = high regression risk.
8 Constructive · 2 Cautious · 1 Balanced | Avg Confidence: 81%
| Pillar | Signal | Key Finding |
|---|---|---|
| Market Efficiency & Mispricing Scanner | 🟢 | Kalshi's 45-46° is at 44%, while Polymarket's equivalent shows combined lower probability for the high end. |
| Prediction Horizon Viability | 🟢 | Half-life measured in hours (~4 hours to peak). 95% of predictive power from current observations. |
| Precedent Outcome Distribution | 🟢 | Wide distribution (Record High 77°F, Record Low 7°F), current year skewed toward cold tail. |
| True Randomness Detector | 🟢 | Current temp 31°F; Forecast high 44°F. Strong persistence in current air mass. |
| Calibration Curve Plotter | 🔴 | Actual win rate for this bucket is 37.8%, vs current 44% market price. Market overpricing the favorite. |
| Recovery Time Estimator | 🟢 | A 1-degree difference shifts winning outcome from favorite to runner-up. Position sizing critical. |
| Base Rate Anchor | 🔴 | Temperature fell within 45-46° in 4 of 31 years — only 12.9%. The 44% price is a significant outlier. |
| Metric Persistence Analyzer | 🟢 | 0.88 correlation between 9:00 AM temp (44°F) and daily high exceeding 45°F. |
| Implied Probability Decoder | 🟢 | The 43-44° bracket has a true market-implied probability of 29.2% once vig is removed. |
| Teleconnection Influence Mapper | 🟢 | NAO index at -1.2, historically associated with below-normal temperatures in the Northeast. |
| Ruin Probability Calculator | 🟡 | Monte Carlo: 4.2% ruin probability at 5% Kelly sizing over 50 trades. |
Analysis complete: 11 pillars in 34.9s
💡 PillarLab is actively improving. If you spot inaccuracies, please submit feedback — it helps us get better!
PillarLab does not predict outcomes or provide financial advice.
Show me something political — like Iran or a high-stakes geopolitical market
Polymarket | $2.4M volume | YES at 38%
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| YES | 38% |
| NO | 62% |
The market is pricing in elevated risk, driven by recent IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear enrichment crossing the 60% threshold. Let me run the full pillar suite.
🚀 Running batch analysis with 11 pillars in parallel...
| Outcome | Market | AI Est. | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | 38% | 14% | -24% ↘ | OVER |
| NO | 62% | 86% | +24% ↗ | UNDER |
AI model estimates can change based on market news, event dynamics, or new data. These are not predictions.
↗ Undervalued · ↘ Overvalued · — Fair
| Context |
|---|
| Iranian nuclear breakout time estimated at 1-2 weeks per IAEA — the one scenario where all constraints become secondary. |
| No carrier strike group redeployed to the Persian Gulf — a critical pre-strike indicator is absent. |
| Congressional Authorization Tracker: No new AUMF introduced. War Powers constraints and election-year dynamics create strong institutional friction. |
| Defense Budget Allocation: FY2026 DoD budget shifts 12% toward Indo-Pacific. CENTCOM procurement flat — inconsistent with strike preparation. |
| Markets are efficient and reflect collective intelligence. Gaps identified here may close rapidly or reflect information we cannot capture. |
AI Model View: NO (undervalued by 24%) | Confidence: HIGH
Reasoning: Despite elevated rhetoric, multiple structural constraints make a US strike unlikely. The Oman diplomatic backchannel remains active, no carrier strike group has been redeployed to 5th Fleet AOR, and DoD's 2026 budget prioritizes Indo-Pacific over CENTCOM. 7 of 8 post-1990 US-Iran escalation cycles resolved without kinetic action.
| Outcome | Market | AI Est. | Edge | EV/$100 | Kelly % | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 62% | 86% | +24% | ✅ $38.71 | 63.2% | POSITIVE EV |
| YES | 38% | 14% | -24% | ❌ $-63.16 | — | NEGATIVE EV |
🔴 Scenario 1: IAEA reports Iran blocks inspectors from Fordow facility
| Probability | ███░░░░░░░ 25% |
| Impact | YES: 55% (+17%), NO drops to 45% |
| Urgency | 🔴 ACT NOW |
| Trigger | IAEA Director General emergency statement or Board of Governors emergency session |
| Action | Plan |
|---|---|
| ✅ Triggered | Reduce NO position by 50%. This is the defined tripwire. |
| ❌ Not triggered | Hold NO position. Continued IAEA access means diplomacy is functioning. |
| 🚪 Dead when | If Iran provides expanded access (Additional Protocol), YES drops below 20%. |
🟡 Scenario 2: Carrier Strike Group ordered to 5th Fleet AOR
| Probability | ██░░░░░░░░ 12% |
| Impact | YES: 62% (+24%), NO drops to 38% |
| Urgency | 🟡 WATCH |
| Trigger | DoD Force Posture announcement or OSINT confirmation of CSG transit through Suez |
| Action | Plan |
|---|---|
| ✅ Triggered | Exit NO position entirely. CSG redeployment is the most reliable 30-60 day leading indicator. |
| ❌ Not triggered | Maintain NO position with high confidence. |
| 🚪 Dead when | If CSG is redeployed to Indo-Pacific instead, YES drops to <10%. |
🟢 Scenario 3: US-Iran indirect talks resume through Oman channel
| Probability | ████░░░░░░ 35% |
| Impact | NO: 92% (+6%), YES drops to 8% |
| Urgency | 🟢 FAVORABLE |
| Trigger | State Department confirmation or credible diplomatic press reports |
| Action | Plan |
|---|---|
| ✅ Triggered | Add to NO position. Diplomatic engagement directly contradicts strike preparation. |
| ❌ Not triggered | No change to thesis — current baseline already assumes dormant channel. |
| 🚪 Dead when | If Oman publicly distances itself from mediation role. |
| Relevance | Pattern | Sample | Hit Rate | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 HIGH | Post-1990 US-Iran escalation cycles resolving without kinetic action | 8 cycles | 87.5% (7/8) | Historical Conflict Escalation Model |
| 🔴 HIGH | Election-year military restraint (US presidential cycle) | 12 cycles | 83% | Congressional Authorization Tracker |
| 🟡 MED | IAEA report → market spike → reversion pattern | 23 events | 74% | Sanctions Pressure Index |
| Candidate | Metric | Current | Baseline | Z-Score | Direction | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Implied Probability vs. Historical Base Rate | 38% | 12.5% | +2.1σ | 📈 OVERPERFORMING | Market pricing 3x the historical base rate. Fear premium is elevated. |
Z-Score > 2.0σ = high regression risk.
8 Constructive · 2 Cautious · 1 Balanced | Avg Confidence: 79%
| Pillar | Signal | Key Finding |
|---|---|---|
| Diplomatic Signal Tracker | 🟢 | Oman backchannel active; no withdrawal of diplomatic staff — key pre-strike indicator absent. |
| Military Posture Index | 🟢 | No carrier strike group redeployed to 5th Fleet AOR. CENTCOM at baseline, not surge. |
| Historical Conflict Escalation Model | 🟢 | 7 of 8 post-1990 cycles resolved without kinetic action. Mirrors 2019 tanker crisis. |
| Congressional Authorization Tracker | 🟢 | No new AUMF. War Powers constraints and election-year dynamics create institutional friction. |
| Defense Budget Allocation Analysis | 🟢 | FY2026 DoD budget shifts 12% toward Indo-Pacific. CENTCOM procurement flat. |
| Sanctions Pressure Index | 🟢 | Maximum pressure sanctions deployed; escalation ladder favors economic over kinetic. |
| Allied Coalition Readiness | 🟢 | UK and France have not elevated Gulf force posture. Unilateral strike politically costly. |
| Oil Market Stress Indicator | 🟡 | Brent at $82/bbl. A strike triggers $15-25/bbl spike — creating strong economic deterrent. |
| Intelligence Community Leak Index | 🟢 | No OSINT signals. Major operations generate detectable patterns 60-90 days prior. |
| Iranian Domestic Stability Monitor | 🔴 | Regime instability could trigger provocative action forcing US response — primary tail risk. |
| Nuclear Program Timeline Tracker | 🔴 | Iran's breakout time at 1-2 weeks per IAEA. Could shift the calculus dramatically. |
Analysis complete: 11 pillars in 32.4s
💡 PillarLab is actively improving. If you spot inaccuracies, please submit feedback — it helps us get better!
PillarLab does not predict outcomes or provide financial advice.
Two completely different pillar sets — the weather analysis used Teleconnection Mapping, ENSO Phase, Calibration Curves. This one used Diplomatic Signal Tracker, Military Posture Index, Congressional Authorization. That's 1,700+ frameworks, each category gets its own specialized toolkit.
How much does it cost?
Every new account starts with 25 free credits — no credit card required. Here's the full breakdown:
| Plan | Price | Credits |
|---|---|---|
| Free | $0 | 25 credits on signup |
| Starter | $29/month | 300 credits |
| Growth | $99/month | 1,000 credits |
| Pro | $199–$1749/mo | 2,000–20,000 credits |
Why credits vs. unlimited? Each deep analysis hits live APIs, runs real-time data feeds, and processes through 10+ specialized models in parallel. That costs real compute. Credits keep the system fast and high-quality — no corners cut.
Annual billing saves 17% on all paid plans.
