← Back to Track Record

Pittsburgh vs New York Y

Sports · Kalshi · Called NO, verified LOSS · Jul 22, 2026
View the original Kalshi market →
Verified Outcome
LOSS
PillarLab called Pittsburgh will NOT win (NO @ 41%).
Result: Pittsburgh won. The call was wrong.
Analyzed: Jul 22, 2026, 4:58 AM UTC
Market resolved: Jul 22, 2026, 8:27 PM UTC
Called 15h before resolution. The call was made before the outcome was known.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbgame/professional-baseball-game/KXMLBGAME-26JUL221335PITNYY?utm_source=kalshiapp_eventpage&referral=27384e31-6de9-4bb2-a4e6-87819f15dd5b

PillarLab
📡 Fetching Kalshi data...
PillarLab
✅ Got data from Kalshi API!0.5s
PillarLab
🔍 Step 1: Detecting market type and category...
PillarLab
✅ Category: ⚽ SPORTS ✅ Type: BINARY 📊 Market: Pittsburgh vs New York Y 📅 Date: 2026-07-22T17:35:00.000Z 💰 Volume: $57,748 Current Odds: • New York Y: 60% • Pittsburgh: 41%4.4s
PillarLab
⏳ Step 2: Gathering intelligence (parallel)...
PillarLab
✅ Intelligence gathered: Vegas Lines · Injury Report · Team Stats · Reddit Sentiment · Situational Factors · Line Movement · Handle Split (Public vs Sharp) · Candidate Dossiers (case for + case against, every candidate ≥2%)10.4s
PillarLab
🧠 Step 3: Deep Analysing across all 9 pillars — hang tight, ~20s...
PillarLab

📊 Market Summary

⚽ Pittsburgh vs New York Y

Team/PlayerCurrent Odds
New York Y60%
Pittsburgh41%

2 options total

PillarLab

🎯 Best Trade

  • Action: Pittsburgh — NO @ 41%

  • Confidence: 🟡 MEDIUM · Uncertainty: MEDIUM

  • Why:

  • Key player Endy Rodríguez out with lower-body injury
  • Road game at Yankee Stadium
  • Despite strong road scoring, recent loss to Yankees 8-5
  • Injury and market drift suggest lower probability of win
PillarLab

📈 Where the Market Stands

OptionMarketRead
New York Y60%🟢 FAVORED
Pittsburgh41%🔴 TRAILING

I price with the market — 🟢 favored · 🔴 trailing. The analysis below is the why.

PillarLab

🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Sharp Trading Method)

📊 1. Vegas Line

My Vegas Line prices New York Y at 60% and Pittsburgh at 41%, consistent with sportsbook odds around -117/-148 vs -103/-106.

📈 2. Line Movement

Line movement showed New York moneyline drifting from around -117 to -148, indicating the market's lean toward the Yankees.

🏥 3. Injury Report

Pittsburgh's Endy Rodríguez (lower-body) is listed as out/doubtful with a return date of July 23-24; New York's Carlos Rodón is on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation.

📱 4. Reddit Sentiment

Reddit game-thread chatter noted Yankees' offensive frustration and a postponed game, with no strong consensus favoring either side—overall sentiment neutral.

🔢 5. Team Stats & Form

Pittsburgh enters at 52-49, New York at 56-44. Recent form: the prior game on July 20 saw Pirates 5, Yankees 8. Pittsburgh has scored 5.33 runs per road game recently, but the Yankees have a slight edge in record and home performance.

🌤️ 6. Situational Factors

Game at Yankee Stadium favors New York; the July 21 postponement affected rest—Yankees had extra rest, Pirates may have had disrupted routine.

💰 7. Handle Split (Public vs Sharp)

No handle split data is publicly available for this MLB moneyline market, so the public-sharp split cannot be assessed.

⏰ 8. Time Decay

MEDIUM - Injury news on Rodríguez is known and priced in; further lineup announcements could shift sentiment slightly, but the market already reflects current info.

⚡ 9. Contrarian Check

Pittsburgh's recent offensive surge and near even-money pricing in some early lines suggest they are a live underdog, but the market's drift and home-field advantage for New York justify the 60% price.

PillarLab

⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice. Do your own research before placing any trades.

Stop guessing. See the edge.

Paste any Kalshi or Polymarket market. PillarLab runs a full 9-pillar analysis and hands you a Best Trade call in about 30 seconds.

Free to start · 10 credits · no card

PillarLab AI is an AI prediction-market analyzer that runs a 9-pillar analysis on Kalshi and Polymarket markets and publishes a public, settlement-verified track record of its decisive calls.