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New York M vs Philadelphia

Sports · Kalshi · Called NO, verified WIN · Jul 18, 2026
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Verified Outcome
WIN
PillarLab called New York M will NOT win (NO @ 36%).
Result: New York M did not win. The call was correct.
Analyzed: Jul 18, 2026, 7:17 PM UTC
Market resolved: Jul 18, 2026, 10:52 PM UTC
Called 4h before resolution. The call was made before the outcome was known.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbgame/professional-baseball-game/KXMLBGAME-26JUL181605NYMPHI?utm_source=kalshiapp_eventpage&referral=1d67bb94-a005-4219-acfd-7d3b12e4e6a0

PillarLab
📡 Fetching Kalshi data...
PillarLab
✅ Got data from Kalshi API!0.3s
PillarLab
🔍 Step 1: Detecting market type and category...
PillarLab
✅ Category: ⚽ SPORTS ✅ Type: BINARY 📊 Market: New York M vs Philadelphia 📅 Date: 2026-07-18T20:05:00.000Z 💰 Volume: $1,065,933 Current Odds: • Philadelphia: 65% • New York M: 36%3.4s
PillarLab
⏳ Step 2: Gathering intelligence (parallel)...
PillarLab
✅ Intelligence gathered: Vegas Lines · Injury Report · Team Stats · Reddit Sentiment · Situational Factors · Line Movement · Handle Split (Public vs Sharp) · Candidate Dossiers (case for + case against, every candidate ≥2%)15.8s
PillarLab
🧠 Step 3: Deep Analysing across all 9 pillars — hang tight, ~20s...
PillarLab

📊 Market Summary

⚽ New York M vs Philadelphia

Team/PlayerCurrent Odds
Philadelphia65%
New York M36%

2 options total

PillarLab

🎯 Best Trade

  • Action: New York M — NO @ 36%

  • Confidence: 🟡 MEDIUM · Uncertainty: LOW

  • Why:

  • Poor overall record of 41-57, 13 games below .500.
  • Juan Soto's calf soreness adds short-term uncertainty even if reported minor.
  • Line movement only slight toward New York, still solid underdog status.
PillarLab

📈 Where the Market Stands

OptionMarketRead
Philadelphia65%🟢 FAVORED
New York M36%🔴 TRAILING

I price with the market — 🟢 favored · 🔴 trailing. The analysis below is the why.

PillarLab

🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Sharp Trading Method)

📊 1. Vegas Line

My Vegas Line has Philadelphia at 65%, consistent with the -126 moneyline favorite.

📈 2. Line Movement

The line moved slightly toward New York from -131 to -126, indicating some market resistance to Philadelphia at the current price.

🏥 3. Injury Report

Juan Soto (Mets) exited the July 16 game with calf soreness, reported as insignificant; Mets have Lindor and Semien back from IL; Phillies injury status not fully surfaced.

📱 4. Reddit Sentiment

No strong quantified consensus on Reddit; game threads are neutral with no clear crowd bias.

🔢 5. Team Stats & Form

Mets won the most recent meeting 4-1 on July 16, but Phillies hold a better overall record (54-44 vs 41-57) and recent blowout wins (15-3 and 6-2) over the Mets.

🌤️ 6. Situational Factors

Game at Citizens Bank Park gives Philadelphia home-field advantage; no weather or travel edge identified.

💰 7. Handle Split (Public vs Sharp)

Public handle splits are not publicly available for this matchup.

⏰ 8. Time Decay

LOW - no imminent lineup news or injury updates are expected to shift the market significantly; Soto's issue appears minor.

⚡ 9. Contrarian Check

The market may be overreacting to the Mets' July 16 win; Philadelphia's superior season record and home dominance justify their 65% price.

PillarLab

⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice. Do your own research before placing any trades.

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