← Back to Track Record

New England vs Seattle

Sports Β· Kalshi Β· Called YES, verified WIN Β· Sep 9, 2026
View the original Kalshi market →
Verified Outcome
WIN
PillarLab called Seattle to win (YES @ 62%).
Result: Seattle won. The call was correct. Final result: Seattle won.
Analyzed: Sep 9, 2026, 6:17 PM UTC
Market resolved: Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM UTC
Called 9h before resolution. The call was made before the outcome was known.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnflgame/ne-patriots-vs-sea-seahawks/KXNFLGAME-26SEP09NESEA?utm_source=kalshiapp_eventdetails

PillarLab
πŸ“‘ Fetching Kalshi data...
PillarLab
βœ… Got data from Kalshi API!0.7s
PillarLab
πŸ” Step 1: Detecting market type and category...
PillarLab
βœ… Category: ⚽ SPORTS βœ… Type: MULTI_CANDIDATE πŸ“Š Market: New England vs Seattle πŸ“… Date: 2026-09-10T06:20:00.000Z πŸ’° Volume: $4,041,167 Current Odds: β€’ Seattle: 62% β€’ New England: 39%1.1s
PillarLab
⏳ Step 2: Gathering intelligence (parallel)...
PillarLab
βœ… Intelligence gathered: Sportsbook Consensus (50+ books, vig removed) Β· Injury Report Β· Team Stats Β· Candidate Dossiers (case for + case against, every candidate β‰₯2%)6.0s
PillarLab
🧠 Step 3: Deep Analysing across all 9 pillars β€” hang tight, ~20s...
PillarLab

πŸ“Š Market Summary

⚽ New England vs Seattle

Team/PlayerCurrent Odds
Seattle62%
New England39%

2 options total

PillarLab

🎯 Best Trade

  • Action: Seattle β€” YES @ 62%

  • Confidence: 🟑 MEDIUM Β· Uncertainty: LOW

  • Why: 26 sharp books price Seattle between 61 and 62 (Pinnacle 62, DraftKings 61, FanDuel 62, BetMGM 64, Caesars (WH) 61, Bet365 62, Circa 61, BetRivers 62, Bovada 61, BetOnline 62, LowVig 62, Betway 62, Fanatics 62, Betsson 61, 1xBet 62, Winamax FR 61, kalshi 61, hardrockbet 62, paddypower 62, polymarket 61, betfair_sb 62, novig 62, betfair_ex 62, dafabet 62, superbet 61, betvictor 61). Consensus, vig removed: 61.7%. The market has Seattle at 62%. That is the fair price. No discount, but the side is clear.

Line move since our first snapshot: Seattle 63% to 61.7%. Money moved toward New England.

  • Why New England is priced where it is (39%):
  • Lost to Seattle in Super Bowl LX, showing they are a step behind.
  • Road game at Lumen Field, a venue where they have struggled.
  • DT Joshua Farmer questionable with a hamstring issue, weakening the defensive line.

πŸ“ What would change this call: if the market drops Seattle 5+ points under the books it becomes a HIGH-confidence discount. If the top books split by more than 5 points, or a starter is scratched, it goes to HOLD.

PillarLab

🏦 What the Books Say

Percent is the number the call runs on. American odds in parentheses are the same price, shown the way a sportsbook shows it.

BookSeattleNew England
Pinnacle62% (-175)38% (+156)
DraftKings60.9% (-175)39.1% (+145)
FanDuel61.5% (-178)38.5% (+150)
BetMGM63.9% (-200)36.1% (+165)
Caesars (WH)61.2% (-175)38.8% (+148)
Bet36561.7% (-182)38.3% (+150)
Circa61.1% (-169)38.9% (+150)
BetRivers61.9% (-185)38.1% (+150)
Bovada61.4% (-175)38.6% (+150)
BetOnline61.7% (-175)38.3% (+153)
LowVig61.7% (-175)38.3% (+153)
Betway62.1% (-190)37.9% (+150)
Fanatics61.6% (-179)38.4% (+150)
Betsson61.2% (-196)38.8% (+138)
1xBet61.7% (-185)38.3% (+148)
Winamax FR60.6% (-179)39.4% (+140)
kalshi61.4% (-164)38.6% (+156)
hardrockbet61.6% (-179)38.4% (+150)
paddypower62% (-189)38% (+150)
polymarket61.3% (-163)38.7% (+156)
betfair_sb62% (-189)38% (+150)
novig61.8% (-164)38.2% (+160)
betfair_ex62.1% (-167)37.9% (+162)
dafabet62.4% (-189)37.6% (+154)
superbet60.8% (-172)39.2% (+145)
betvictor61.1% (-189)38.9% (+140)
Consensus, vig removed61.7%38.3%

26 sportsbooks priced this game. Spread across the top 26 on Seattle: 1.6 pts (books agree). Best price: Seattle -163 at polymarket Β· New England +165 at BetMGM.

PillarLab

πŸ“ˆ Where the Market Stands

OptionMarketBook ConsensusGapVerdict
Seattle62%61.7%+0.3 ptsβšͺ FAIR PRICE
New England39%38.3%+0.7 ptsβšͺ FAIR PRICE

Gap is market minus book consensus. Negative means the market is cheaper than the books, that is the discount we look for. 5 or more points cheaper is where the edge lives. 5 or more points over is overpaying.

PillarLab

πŸ”¬ 9-Pillar Analysis (Sharp Trading Method)

🏦 1. Book Consensus

Consensus of 26 sportsbooks, vig removed: Seattle 61.7%, New England 38.3%. Pinnacle: Seattle 62%, New England 38%. Spread across the top books on Seattle: 1.6 pts (books agree).

πŸ“ˆ 2. Form & Head-to-Head

Both teams are 14-3 and won their last game: Seattle beat the Rams 31-27 at home, New England beat the Broncos 10-7 on the road.

πŸ₯ 3. Injury Report

New England DT Joshua Farmer is questionable (hamstring, out since December); no Seattle injuries reported.

🧾 4. Starters & Lineups

No starting lineups announced for this game; the last line move predates any lineup news.

πŸ“° 5. Recent News (48h)

Nothing material in the last 48 hours.

🌀️ 6. Situational Factors

Seattle hosts at Lumen Field; New England is the road team.

πŸ”€ 7. Line Movement

Since our first snapshot (2026-08-26 20:05 UTC): Seattle 63% to 61.7%, New England 37% to 38.3%. Money moved toward New England.

πŸ•’ 8. What the Books May Not Have Priced

LOW - No late scratches or fresh news after the last line move; the only injury (Farmer) is dated and already priced.

⚑ 9. Why the Other Side Is Priced Where It Is

New England's price reflects that they lost to Seattle in last year's Super Bowl, are on the road at a venue where they've struggled, and face a Seahawks defense that led the way to that title.

PillarLab

⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice. Do your own research before placing any trades.

Stop guessing. See the edge.

Paste any Kalshi or Polymarket market. PillarLab runs a full 9-pillar analysis and hands you a Best Trade call in about 30 seconds.

Free to start Β· 10 credits Β· no card

PillarLab AI is an AI prediction-market analyzer that runs a 9-pillar analysis on Kalshi and Polymarket markets and publishes a public, settlement-verified track record of its decisive calls.

PillarLab AI
PillarLab
9-Pillar Analysis ~30s

#1 AI-Powered Prediction Market Analyzer Tool for Kalshi & Polymarket

Paste any market URL for a full 9-pillar analysis: Vegas lines, injury reports, weather forecasts, sentiment, edge vs market, and a Best Trade call.

How it works

Paste a Kalshi or Polymarket URL β†’ AI fetches real-time API market data β†’ 4–5 parallel intelligence sources β†’ a deep 9-pillar analysis β†’ an actionable prediction with an edge estimate. 5 market categories: Politics, Sports, Weather, Finance and General.

⚽ Sports (9 Pillars)

  1. 1.Vegas Lines β†’ spread, moneyline, totals
  2. 2.Line Movement β†’ sharp money signals
  3. 3.Injury Reports β†’ player status tracking
  4. 4.Reddit Sentiment β†’ r/sportsbook consensus
  5. 5.Team Statistics β†’ form, H2H, splits
  6. 6.Situational Factors β†’ rest, travel, schedule
  7. 7.Handle Splits β†’ public vs sharp money
  8. 8.Time Decay β†’ late line movement
  9. 9.Contrarian Check β†’ fade-the-public value

🌦️ Weather (9 Pillars)

  1. 1.Forecast Consensus β†’ GFS / ECMWF / NWS agreement
  2. 2.Ensemble Spread β†’ GEFS uncertainty range
  3. 3.Forecast Skill Decay β†’ accuracy vs time horizon
  4. 4.Historical Base Rate β†’ NOAA climate frequency
  5. 5.Model Divergence β†’ where models disagree vs market
  6. 6.Micro-Climate Bias β†’ station-specific effects
  7. 7.Storm Track β†’ NHC cone / hurricane tracking
  8. 8.Market Pricing β†’ implied probability vs forecast
  9. 9.Contrarian Check β†’ overshoot / mean-reversion

πŸ’° Finance (9 Pillars)

  1. 1.Technical Analysis β†’ RSI, MACD, support levels
  2. 2.Fundamental Metrics β†’ P/E, revenue, earnings
  3. 3.Smart Money β†’ institutional flows, insider trades
  4. 4.Reddit Sentiment β†’ WSB, r/stocks analysis
  5. 5.Macro Indicators β†’ Fed rates, inflation, GDP
  6. 6.News Catalysts β†’ earnings, product launches
  7. 7.Social Velocity β†’ Twitter momentum tracking
  8. 8.Market Signals β†’ volume, bid-ask analysis
  9. 9.Contrarian Check β†’ overcrowded trade detection

πŸ“° General (9 Pillars)

  1. 1.Base Rate β†’ historical frequency analysis
  2. 2.Official Benchmarks β†’ expert forecasts
  3. 3.Reddit Sentiment β†’ subreddit consensus
  4. 4.Social Velocity β†’ viral momentum tracking
  5. 5.News Recency β†’ 24–72h breaking news
  6. 6.Source Quality β†’ credibility scoring
  7. 7.Time Decay β†’ resolution timeline
  8. 8.Contrarian Check β†’ hidden edge detection

πŸ›οΈ Politics (9 Pillars)

  1. 1.Polls Analysis β†’ polling vs market odds divergence
  2. 2.Economic Impact β†’ GDP, unemployment affecting votes
  3. 3.Approval Ratings β†’ candidate favorability tracking
  4. 4.Cross-Platform Markets β†’ Polymarket vs Kalshi arbitrage
  5. 5.Breaking News β†’ events shifting political odds
  6. 6.Regional Patterns β†’ swing state analysis
  7. 7.Social Sentiment β†’ Reddit, X political trends
  8. 8.Data Uncertainty β†’ confidence intervals
  9. 9.Contrarian Risk β†’ devil's advocate view