MMA: Smith vs Livingston
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxufcfight/mma-smith-vs-livingston/KXUFCFIGHT-26SEP01SMILIV?utm_source=kalshiapp_eventdetails
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⚽ MMA: Smith vs Livingston
| Team/Player | Current Odds |
|---|---|
| Adam Livingston | 63% |
| Hunter Smith | 38% |
2 options total
PillarLab🎯 Best Trade
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Action: Adam Livingston — YES @ 63%
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Confidence: 🟡 MEDIUM · Uncertainty: LOW
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Why: 4 sharp books price Adam Livingston between 63 and 64 (Pinnacle 63, FanDuel 64, BetOnline 64, BetAnySports 63). Consensus, vig removed: 63.3%. The market has Adam Livingston at 63%. That is the fair price. No discount, but the side is clear.
Line move since our first snapshot: Adam Livingston 59.9% to 63.3%. Money moved toward Adam Livingston.
- Why Hunter Smith is priced where it is (38%):
- Smith hasn't fought since December 2023, a nearly three-year layoff that raises rust risk.
- His six first-round finishes are impressive but came against lower-level competition.
- Livingston's recent KO win over Pufahl suggests he is in better current form.
📐 What would change this call: if the market drops Adam Livingston 5+ points under the books it becomes a HIGH-confidence discount. If the top books split by more than 5 points, or a starter is scratched, it goes to HOLD.
PillarLab🏦 What the Books Say
Percent is the number the call runs on. American odds in parentheses are the same price, shown the way a sportsbook shows it.
| Book | Adam Livingston | Hunter Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 63.1% (-190) | 36.9% (+161) |
| FanDuel | 63.9% (-198) | 36.1% (+166) |
| BetOnline | 63.5% (-190) | 36.5% (+165) |
| BetAnySports | 63% (-190) | 37% (+160) |
| Consensus, vig removed | 63.3% | 36.7% |
4 sportsbooks priced this game. Spread across the top 4 on Adam Livingston: 0.9 pts (books agree). Best price: Adam Livingston -190 at Pinnacle · Hunter Smith +166 at FanDuel.
PillarLab📈 Where the Market Stands
| Option | Market | Book Consensus | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Livingston | 63% | 63.3% | -0.3 pts | ⚪ FAIR PRICE |
| Hunter Smith | 38% | 36.7% | +1.3 pts | ⚪ FAIR PRICE |
Gap is market minus book consensus. Negative means the market is cheaper than the books, that is the discount we look for. 5 or more points cheaper is where the edge lives. 5 or more points over is overpaying.
PillarLab🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Sharp Trading Method)
🏦 1. Book Consensus
Consensus of 4 sportsbooks, vig removed: Adam Livingston 63.3%, Hunter Smith 36.7%. Pinnacle: Adam Livingston 63.1%, Hunter Smith 36.9%. Spread across the top books on Adam Livingston: 0.9 pts (books agree).
📈 2. Form & Head-to-Head
Livingston is 7-1 with a May 2026 KO win over Kyle Pufahl, while Smith is 8-1 but hasn't fought since December 2023.
🏥 3. Injury Report
No injury or suspension information is publicly available for either fighter.
🧾 4. Starters & Lineups
No official lineup or corner announcements were found for this fight.
📰 5. Recent News (48h)
Nothing material in the last 48 hours.
🌤️ 6. Situational Factors
No venue or conditions data; both fighters are coming off long layoffs, with Smith's being nearly three years.
🔀 7. Line Movement
Since our first snapshot (2026-08-31 04:05 UTC): Adam Livingston 59.9% to 63.3%, Hunter Smith 40.1% to 36.7%. Money moved toward Adam Livingston.
🕒 8. What the Books May Not Have Priced
LOW - No late scratches or fresh news dated after the last line move; the line already reflects the known layoff and form data.
⚡ 9. Why the Other Side Is Priced Where It Is
Hunter Smith's price reflects his long inactivity (no fight since Dec 2023) and Livingston's recent dominant KO win, which together justify Smith as the underdog.
PillarLab⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice. Do your own research before placing any trades.
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