Medvedev vs Gorzny
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpmatch/medvedev-vs-gorzny/KXATPMATCH-26SEP02MEDGOR?utm_source=kalshiapp_eventdetails
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⚽ Medvedev vs Gorzny
| Team/Player | Current Odds |
|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | 94% |
| Sebastian Gorzny | 7% |
2 options total
PillarLab🎯 Best Trade
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Action: Daniil Medvedev — YES @ 94%
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Confidence: 🟡 MEDIUM · Uncertainty: LOW
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Why: 39 sharp books price Daniil Medvedev between 91 and 94 (Pinnacle 93, DraftKings 93, FanDuel 94, BetMGM 91, Caesars (WH) 94, Betfair 94, BetRivers 91, Bovada 93, BetOnline 93, LowVig 93, Marathonbet 93, Unibet 91, Unibet FR 93, Unibet NL 91, Unibet SE 91, William Hill 91, 888sport 91, Fanatics 92, BetAnySports 92, Betclic 93, Betsson 92, GTbets 93, LeoVegas 91, Matchbook 94, NordicBet 92, 1xBet 95, Tipico 92, Winamax 93, Winamax FR 93, sportsbet 94, betfair_ex_au 94, pointsbetau 93, betr_au 92, playup 91, tab 90, pmu_fr 92, tabtouch 91, ladbrokes_au 93, neds 93). Consensus, vig removed: 92.5%. The market has Daniil Medvedev at 94%. That is the fair price. No discount, but the side is clear.
Line move since our first snapshot: Daniil Medvedev 93.2% to 92.5%. No meaningful move.
- Why Sebastian Gorzny is priced where it is (7%):
- Gorzny is a qualifier with no prior Grand Slam experience, facing a top-tier player in Medvedev.
- His only notable win required saving five match points, indicating he was close to losing and may not sustain that level.
- His inexperience at this stage against a seasoned favorite makes a 7% chance seem generous.
📐 What would change this call: if the market drops Daniil Medvedev 5+ points under the books it becomes a HIGH-confidence discount. If the top books split by more than 5 points, or a starter is scratched, it goes to HOLD.
PillarLab🏦 What the Books Say
Percent is the number the call runs on. American odds in parentheses are the same price, shown the way a sportsbook shows it.
| Book | Daniil Medvedev | Sebastian Gorzny |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 92.7% (-2052) | 7.3% (+1228) |
| DraftKings | 92.8% (-4200) | 7.2% (+1220) |
| FanDuel | 93.6% (-4000) | 6.4% (+1400) |
| BetMGM | 91.4% (-3000) | 8.6% (+1000) |
| Caesars (WH) | 93.7% (-10000) | 6.3% (+1400) |
| Betfair | 93.8% (-1667) | 6.2% (+1500) |
| BetRivers | 91.4% (-2500) | 8.6% (+1000) |
| Bovada | 92.7% (-3300) | 7.3% (+1200) |
| BetOnline | 92.9% (-3000) | 7.1% (+1250) |
| LowVig | 92.9% (-3000) | 7.1% (+1250) |
| Marathonbet | 92.6% (-4545) | 7.4% (+1175) |
| Unibet | 91.4% (-2500) | 8.6% (+1000) |
| Unibet FR | 92.9% (-3333) | 7.1% (+1250) |
| Unibet NL | 91.4% (-2500) | 8.6% (+1000) |
| Unibet SE | 91.4% (-2500) | 8.6% (+1000) |
| William Hill | 91.4% (-2500) | 8.6% (+1000) |
| 888sport | 91.4% (-2500) | 8.6% (+1000) |
| Fanatics | 91.8% (-3000) | 8.2% (+1050) |
| BetAnySports | 92.3% (-3000) | 7.7% (+1145) |
| Betclic | 92.6% (-2500) | 7.4% (+1200) |
| Betsson | 92.1% (-3333) | 7.9% (+1100) |
| GTbets | 92.5% (-5780) | 7.5% (+1161) |
| LeoVegas | 91.4% (-2500) | 8.6% (+1000) |
| Matchbook | 93.8% (-1667) | 6.2% (+1500) |
| NordicBet | 92.1% (-3333) | 7.9% (+1100) |
| 1xBet | 94.5% (-3704) | 5.5% (+1650) |
| Tipico | 92.2% (-5000) | 7.8% (+1100) |
| Winamax | 93.3% (-2500) | 6.7% (+1350) |
| Winamax FR | 93.3% (-2500) | 6.7% (+1350) |
| sportsbet | 93.6% (-5000) | 6.4% (+1400) |
| betfair_ex_au | 93.8% (-1667) | 6.2% (+1500) |
| pointsbetau | 92.7% (-5000) | 7.3% (+1200) |
| betr_au | 91.6% (-3333) | 8.4% (+1025) |
| playup | 91.3% (-2000) | 8.7% (+1000) |
| tab | 89.6% (-2500) | 10.4% (+800) |
| pmu_fr | 91.6% (-10000) | 8.4% (+1000) |
| tabtouch | 91.4% (-2500) | 8.6% (+1000) |
| ladbrokes_au | 92.5% (-5000) | 7.5% (+1150) |
| neds | 92.5% (-5000) | 7.5% (+1150) |
| Consensus, vig removed | 92.5% | 7.5% |
39 sportsbooks priced this game. Spread across the top 39 on Daniil Medvedev: 2.5 pts (books agree). Best price: Daniil Medvedev -1667 at Betfair · Sebastian Gorzny +1650 at 1xBet.
PillarLab📈 Where the Market Stands
| Option | Market | Book Consensus | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | 94% | 92.5% | +1.5 pts | ⚪ FAIR PRICE |
| Sebastian Gorzny | 7% | 7.5% | -0.5 pts | ⚪ FAIR PRICE |
Gap is market minus book consensus. Negative means the market is cheaper than the books, that is the discount we look for. 5 or more points cheaper is where the edge lives. 5 or more points over is overpaying.
PillarLab🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Sharp Trading Method)
🏦 1. Book Consensus
Consensus of 39 sportsbooks, vig removed: Daniil Medvedev 92.5%, Sebastian Gorzny 7.5%. Pinnacle: Daniil Medvedev 92.7%, Sebastian Gorzny 7.3%. Spread across the top books on Daniil Medvedev: 2.5 pts (books agree).
📈 2. Form & Head-to-Head
No head-to-head or recent form data for Gorzny is available; Medvedev's recent 2026 results include a Dubai title and an Indian Wells semifinal loss to Alcaraz.
🏥 3. Injury Report
No injury information is publicly available for either player.
🧾 4. Starters & Lineups
No starting lineup or player availability announcements are relevant for a tennis match.
📰 5. Recent News (48h)
Nothing material in the last 48 hours.
🌤️ 6. Situational Factors
This is a Grand Slam match (likely US Open) with no travel or back-to-back concerns; Medvedev is the higher-ranked, more experienced player.
🔀 7. Line Movement
Since our first snapshot (2026-09-01 02:05 UTC): Daniil Medvedev 93.2% to 92.5%, Sebastian Gorzny 6.8% to 7.5%. No meaningful move.
🕒 8. What the Books May Not Have Priced
LOW - No late scratches or fresh news dated after the last line move; the market has fully priced the known information.
⚡ 9. Why the Other Side Is Priced Where It Is
Gorzny is a qualifier with no Grand Slam experience, and his only notable win required saving five match points, indicating he was close to losing; Medvedev's consistent top-level form and ranking make Gorzny's 7% price justified.
PillarLab⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice. Do your own research before placing any trades.
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