Lowest temperature in Washington DC on Sep 11, 2026?
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlowtdc/lowest-temperature-dc-/kxlowtdc-26sep11
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🌦️ Lowest temperature in Washington DC on Sep 11, 2026?
| Outcome | Current Odds |
|---|---|
| 70° to 71° | 91% |
| 68° to 69° | 16% |
| 63° or below | 2% |
| 64° to 65° | 1% |
| 72° or above | 1% |
| 66° to 67° | 1% |
6 options total
PillarLab🎯 Best Trade
-
Action: 70° to 71° — YES @ 91%
-
Confidence: 🔴 LOW · Uncertainty: LOW
-
Why:
- WJLA's forecast of overnight lows in the '60s' directly supports the 68-69° bucket, yet the market prices it at only 16%.
- The cold front and morning showers noted by WUSA9 and NWS create cooling conditions that could push the overnight low into the upper 60s.
- The 70-71° favorite at 91% leaves little room for the 68-69° outcome, but the forecast evidence suggests the 68-69° bucket deserves more than 16%.
PillarLab📈 Where the Market Stands
| Option | Market | Read |
|---|---|---|
| 70° to 71° | 91% | 🔴 OVERPRICED |
| 68° to 69° | 16% | 🟢 UNDERPRICED |
| 63° or below | 2% | ⚪ FAIR |
Verdicts compare my own read against the market price — 🟢 UNDERPRICED (market has it too low) · 🔴 OVERPRICED (market has it too high). The analysis below is the why.
PillarLab🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Meteorological Method)
🌡️ 1. Forecast Consensus
My Vegas Line reads the 70-71° bucket as the clear favorite at 91%, with the 68-69° bucket a distant second at 16%, and no model output for Sep 11, 2026 available to challenge that read.
📊 2. Ensemble Spread
No GEFS/ECMWF ensemble spread data for this date exists in the gathered intelligence, so the market's 91% confidence cannot be validated against model spread.
⏳ 3. Forecast Skill Decay
The market is pricing near-certainty at a horizon where no forecast model output is even available, which is a skill-decay red flag.
📈 4. Historical Base Rate
No NOAA station base rate for DC on Sep 11 was retrieved, but the national context of the warmest summer on record (June-August 2026) supports a warm overnight low.
🔀 5. Model Divergence
No outlier model scenario is identifiable because no GFS/ECMWF output for this date was gathered.
📍 6. Micro-Climate Bias
The market resolves on the Reagan National (CLIDCA) station, which runs warmer than outlying DC suburbs due to urban heat island and river proximity, supporting the 70-71° bucket.
🌀 7. Storm Track
Not a tropical or severe weather contract; no storm track applies, and no active watches or warnings for the DC area appear in the intelligence.
💰 8. Market Pricing
LOW - the market is thin (volume ~5,004) and no cross-platform or line-movement data exists, so pricing confidence is weak.
⚡ 9. Contrarian Check
The main contrarian risk is that the 91% price on 70-71° is overconfident given the complete absence of forecast model data for this specific date, and the WJLA forecast of overnight lows in the '60s' suggests the 68-69° bucket may be underpriced.
PillarLab⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice, and not a meteorological forecast — verify against NWS/NOAA and current model output before placing any trades.
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