Lowest temperature in Trenton on Sep 11, 2026?

📊 Market Summary

🌦️ Lowest temperature in Trenton on Sep 11, 2026?

6 options total

🎯 Best Trade

• Action: 67° or above — YES @ 62%

• Confidence: 🔴 LOW · Uncertainty: LOW

• Why:

• The 63–64°F band sits inside the date's observed Sep 11 range (64°F in 1876 and 1875), but the only live forecast (59°F low) points below this band, not into it.
• Warm Sep 11 outcomes are well represented in the record list (70–75°F in 1870, 1871, 1873, 1879, 1880; 95°F in 1931), pulling probability mass up and away from 63–64°F.
• No forecast source in the intelligence places Trenton's Sep 11 minimum specifically in the 63–64°F band, so the 37% is a residual of the market's structure rather than a forecast-driven number.

📈 Where the Market Stands

Verdicts compare my own read against the market price — 🟢 UNDERPRICED (market has it too low) · 🔴 OVERPRICED (market has it too high). The analysis below is the why.

🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Meteorological Method)

🌡️ 1. Forecast Consensus

My Vegas Line reads the 67°F-or-above bucket as the favorite at 62%, with the only station-specific forecast in hand (US Harbors) calling a 59°F low for Trenton on Sep 11, 2026 — a figure that sits right on the market's own resolution line and is not corroborated by any GFS/ECMWF/NWS point forecast.

📊 2. Ensemble Spread

No GEFS/ensemble spread data exists for this threshold, so the market's 62/37 split across the top two buckets implies a confidence the available evidence cannot support.

⏳ 3. Forecast Skill Decay

This is a same-day/near-term daily-low contract, so skill decay is minimal — the horizon is short and the forecast is the binding constraint, not lead time.

📈 4. Historical Base Rate

Trenton's Sep 11 record list shows the date has produced 100°F (1983), 95°F (1931), 94°F (1897) and 88°F (1874) highs alongside cool years at 64°F (1876, 1875) and 66°F (1887, 1867), so the date's own distribution is genuinely wide and does not cleanly favor a single bucket.

🔀 5. Model Divergence

The only outlier model in the data is the US Harbors 59°F low, which if right kills the 67°F-or-above bucket entirely and lands the market's 59–60°F tail.

📍 6. Micro-Climate Bias

Trenton (CLITTN) is an inland station distinct from the Jersey Shore readings (77–84°F air) and from Trenton, Ontario (24.3°C) that pollute the search results, so coastal and wrong-city data must be discarded.

🌀 7. Storm Track

Not a tropical/severe weather contract — no storm track applies; the only relevant weather signal is the general heat-dome/above-average pattern noted for the East.

💰 8. Market Pricing

LOW - this is a thin, low-volume (533) daily-temperature market with no published line-movement history, no handle splits, and no cross-platform quote, so the price is soft and the evidence base is one forecast figure.

⚡ 9. Contrarian Check

The main contrarian risk is that the market's 62% on 67°F-or-above is anchored on a warm-season reputation while the single station-specific forecast (59°F low) points the other way — a mean-reversion risk on the hyped warm side.

⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice, and not a meteorological forecast — verify against NWS/NOAA and current model output before placing any trades.