Lowest temperature in Louisville on Sep 11, 2026?
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlowtsdf/lowest-temperature-sdx/kxlowtsdf-26sep11
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🌦️ Lowest temperature in Louisville on Sep 11, 2026?
| Outcome | Current Odds |
|---|---|
| 71° or above | 85% |
| 65° to 66° | 49% |
| 62° or below | 49% |
| 67° to 68° | 49% |
| 63° to 64° | 49% |
| 69° to 70° | 22% |
6 options total
PillarLab🎯 Best Trade
-
Action: 71° or above — YES @ 85%
-
Confidence: 🟡 MEDIUM · Uncertainty: LOW
-
Why:
- The forecast low is 72°F, a full 6-7°F above the 65-66°F band, making this bucket highly unlikely.
- Warm, humid, rainy conditions (H:28°C/L:22°C) with light rain and cloud cover argue against a 65-66°F minimum.
- No source shows any Louisville reading near 65-66°F; the market's favorite is 71° or above.
PillarLab📈 Where the Market Stands
| Option | Market | Read |
|---|---|---|
| 71° or above | 85% | ⚪ FAIR |
| 65° to 66° | 49% | 🔴 OVERPRICED |
| 62° or below | 49% | 🔴 OVERPRICED |
Verdicts compare my own read against the market price — 🟢 UNDERPRICED (market has it too low) · 🔴 OVERPRICED (market has it too high). The analysis below is the why.
PillarLab🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Meteorological Method)
🌡️ 1. Forecast Consensus
My Vegas Line reads the Louisville Sep 11 minimum as a warm, muggy 72°F, aligning with the 71°+ bucket rather than any of the 49% mid-range buckets.
📊 2. Ensemble Spread
No GEFS ensemble spread was captured for Louisville, but the warm, moist, rainy regime (2-3 inch rainfall bullseyes) argues against a wide cool-side spread.
⏳ 3. Forecast Skill Decay
The market is pricing near-certainty on multiple 49% buckets at a horizon where the only hard data point is a current-conditions widget, not a station-specific daily minimum.
📈 4. Historical Base Rate
Louisville's Sep 11 climatological base rate for a sub-63°F minimum is very low given the warm, humid pattern, and no source supports any cool-side outcome.
🔀 5. Model Divergence
The outlier scenario that dies is any cool, clear-night radiational cooling setup — the wet, cloudy, storm-driven airmass kills it.
📍 6. Micro-Climate Bias
Louisville's urban heat island and the wet ground from 2-3 inches of rain suppress overnight cooling, keeping the minimum near 72°F.
🌀 7. Storm Track
Not a tropical contract; no storm track applies, but the overnight storm system that dropped 2-3 inches of rain is the relevant weather driver.
💰 8. Market Pricing
LOW - the market is thin (volume 161) and the 49% prices on multiple buckets look stale against the 72°F forecast low.
⚡ 9. Contrarian Check
The main contrarian risk is that the market is overpricing the cool-side buckets (62° or below, 63-64°, 65-66°, 67-68°) at 49% each when the forecast low is 72°F.
PillarLab⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice, and not a meteorological forecast — verify against NWS/NOAA and current model output before placing any trades.
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