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Ipswich Town vs Liverpool

Sports · Kalshi · Called YES, verified WIN · Sep 3, 2026
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Verified Outcome
WIN
PillarLab called Liverpool to win (YES @ 65%).
Result: Liverpool won. The call was correct.
Analyzed: Sep 3, 2026, 7:01 AM UTC
Market resolved: Sep 4, 2026, 9:05 PM UTC
Called 38h before resolution. The call was made before the outcome was known.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeplgame/ipswich-town-vs-liverpool/KXEPLGAME-26SEP04IPSLFC?utm_source=kalshiapp_eventdetails

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📡 Fetching Kalshi data...
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✅ Got data from Kalshi API!0.6s
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🔍 Step 1: Detecting market type and category...
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✅ Category: ⚽ SPORTS ✅ Type: MULTI_CANDIDATE 📊 Market: Ipswich Town vs Liverpool 📅 Date: 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z 💰 Volume: $232,783 Current Odds: • Liverpool: 65% • Tie: 20% • Ipswich Town: 17%1.3s
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⏳ Step 2: Gathering intelligence (parallel)...
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✅ Intelligence gathered: Sportsbook Consensus (50+ books, vig removed) · Injury Report · Team Stats · Candidate Dossiers (case for + case against, every candidate ≥2%)13.9s
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🧠 Step 3: Deep Analysing across all 9 pillars — hang tight, ~20s...
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📊 Market Summary

⚽ Ipswich Town vs Liverpool

Team/PlayerCurrent Odds
Liverpool65%
Tie20%
Ipswich Town17%

3 options total

PillarLab

🎯 Best Trade

  • Action: Liverpool — YES @ 65%

  • Confidence: 🔴 LOW · Uncertainty: LOW

  • Why: 50 sharp books price Liverpool between 60 and 63 (Pinnacle 62, DraftKings 62, FanDuel 63, BetMGM 61, Caesars (WH) 62, Betfair 63, Betfair UK 63, BetRivers 63, Bovada 62, BetOnline 62, LowVig 62, Marathonbet 63, Unibet FR 61, Unibet NL 63, Unibet SE 63, William Hill 60, Betway 62, Coral 61, 888sport 60, Fanatics 61, BetAnySports 62, Betclic 63, Betsson 62, BetUS 62, Coolbet 63, GTbets 62, LeoVegas 63, Matchbook 63, MyBookie 62, NordicBet 62, 1xBet 63, Tipico 63, Winamax 62, Winamax FR 62, leovegas 62, codere_it 62, betfred_uk 62, unibet_uk 63, paddypower 62, skybet 62, smarkets 63, boylesports 61, betvictor 63, betano_uk 63, virginbet 62, casumo 63, livescorebet 62, grosvenor 63, pmu_fr 62, ladbrokes_uk 61). Consensus, vig removed: 62.3%. The market has Liverpool at 65%. The market is 2.7 points above the books, so you pay a little over fair. Still the right side.

Line move since our first snapshot: Liverpool 57.9% to 62.3%. Money moved toward Liverpool.

  • Why Ipswich Town is priced where it is (17%):
  • Lost 5-2 at home to Manchester United on Aug 30, conceding five goals, showing defensive frailty against top sides.
  • Their only win came against Sunderland, a weaker opponent, and they have no recent result against a top-six side.
  • Liverpool have won both recent meetings (2-0 and 4-1), with Salah scoring in each.

📐 What would change this call: if the market drops Liverpool 5+ points under the books it becomes a HIGH-confidence discount. If the top books split by more than 5 points, or a starter is scratched, it goes to HOLD.

PillarLab

🏦 What the Books Say

Percent is the number the call runs on. American odds in parentheses are the same price, shown the way a sportsbook shows it.

BookLiverpoolIpswich TownTie
Pinnacle62.3% (-183)17.9% (+438)19.8% (+387)
DraftKings61.7% (-185)18.1% (+425)20.2% (+370)
FanDuel62.6% (-190)17.1% (+460)20.3% (+370)
BetMGM60.7% (-210)18.7% (+380)20.7% (+333)
Caesars (WH)61.6% (-190)17.9% (+425)20.4% (+360)
Betfair63.3% (-175)16.9% (+490)19.9% (+400)
Betfair UK63.3% (-175)16.9% (+490)19.9% (+400)
BetRivers62.8% (-195)17% (+460)20.2% (+370)
Bovada62% (-186)17.7% (+440)20.3% (+370)
BetOnline62.3% (-182)17.9% (+440)19.8% (+388)
LowVig62.3% (-182)17.9% (+440)19.8% (+388)
Marathonbet62.6% (-182)17.5% (+455)20% (+385)
Unibet FR61.2% (-208)18.1% (+400)20.6% (+340)
Unibet NL63.1% (-186)16.7% (+480)20.2% (+380)
Unibet SE63.1% (-186)16.7% (+480)20.2% (+380)
William Hill60.2% (-182)18.6% (+400)21.2% (+340)
Betway61.9% (-200)18.6% (+400)19.5% (+375)
Coral61.2% (-200)18.4% (+400)20.4% (+350)
888sport60.4% (-188)18.5% (+400)21% (+340)
Fanatics60.9% (-180)18% (+425)21.1% (+350)
BetAnySports62.3% (-182)17.9% (+440)19.8% (+388)
Betclic63.1% (-200)17.2% (+450)19.7% (+380)
Betsson62.3% (-192)16.5% (+475)21.3% (+345)
BetUS62.3% (-180)17.9% (+440)19.8% (+390)
Coolbet63.2% (-182)16.9% (+480)20% (+390)
GTbets62.4% (-197)17.4% (+440)20.2% (+366)
LeoVegas62.5% (-195)16.9% (+460)20.6% (+360)
Matchbook63% (-175)16.8% (+490)20.2% (+390)
MyBookie61.9% (-200)17.9% (+420)20.2% (+360)
NordicBet62.3% (-192)16.5% (+475)21.3% (+345)
1xBet62.5% (-174)17.5% (+463)20% (+392)
Tipico62.9% (-200)16.6% (+470)20.5% (+360)
Winamax62.2% (-200)18.3% (+410)19.5% (+380)
Winamax FR62% (-200)18.6% (+400)19.4% (+380)
leovegas61.6% (-189)17.9% (+425)20.5% (+360)
codere_it62.4% (-189)17.7% (+440)19.9% (+380)
betfred_uk61.8% (-188)17.2% (+450)21% (+350)
unibet_uk62.6% (-192)17.3% (+450)20.1% (+375)
paddypower62.3% (-200)17% (+450)20.8% (+350)
skybet61.8% (-200)17.6% (+425)20.6% (+350)
smarkets63.3% (-175)16.9% (+490)19.9% (+400)
boylesports60.5% (-182)18.7% (+400)20.8% (+350)
betvictor63% (-200)16.4% (+475)20.5% (+360)
betano_uk63% (-200)16.4% (+475)20.5% (+360)
virginbet61.8% (-200)17.2% (+440)21.1% (+340)
casumo62.8% (-195)17% (+460)20.2% (+370)
livescorebet62% (-213)17.3% (+425)20.7% (+340)
grosvenor62.8% (-195)17% (+460)20.2% (+370)
pmu_fr62.1% (-200)17.2% (+440)20.7% (+350)
ladbrokes_uk61.2% (-200)18.4% (+400)20.4% (+350)
Consensus, vig removed62.3%17.5%20.3%

52 sportsbooks priced this game. Spread across the top 50 on Liverpool: 2.9 pts (books agree). Best price: Liverpool -174 at 1xBet · Ipswich Town +490 at Betfair · Tie +400 at Betfair.

PillarLab

📈 Where the Market Stands

OptionMarketBook ConsensusGapVerdict
Liverpool65%62.3%+2.7 pts⚪ FAIR PRICE
Tie20%20.3%-0.3 pts⚪ FAIR PRICE
Ipswich Town17%17.5%-0.5 pts⚪ FAIR PRICE

Gap is market minus book consensus. Negative means the market is cheaper than the books, that is the discount we look for. 5 or more points cheaper is where the edge lives. 5 or more points over is overpaying.

PillarLab

🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Sharp Trading Method)

🏦 1. Book Consensus

Consensus of 52 sportsbooks, vig removed: Liverpool 62.3%, Ipswich Town 17.5%, Tie 20.3%. Pinnacle: Liverpool 62.3%, Ipswich Town 17.9%, Tie 19.8%. Spread across the top books on Liverpool: 2.9 pts (books agree).

📈 2. Form & Head-to-Head

Ipswich Town lost 5-2 at home to Manchester United on Aug 30, having won 2-1 at Sunderland in their opener; Liverpool have drawn 2-2 at Newcastle and 2-2 vs Nottingham Forest, remaining unbeaten but winless.

🏥 3. Injury Report

No specific injury or suspension information is available for either side; the preview notes Liverpool's defensive concerns but names no players.

🧾 4. Starters & Lineups

No confirmed starting lineups have been announced for this match; the last line move occurred before any team news would be public.

📰 5. Recent News (48h)

Nothing material in the last 48 hours beyond the general preview and the 5-2 defeat for Ipswich.

🌤️ 6. Situational Factors

Ipswich Town are at home at Portman Road; Liverpool travel, but have superior squad depth and Premier League pedigree.

🔀 7. Line Movement

Since our first snapshot (2026-08-23 16:05 UTC): Liverpool 57.9% to 62.3%, Ipswich Town 18.6% to 17.5%, Tie 23.6% to 20.3%. Money moved toward Liverpool.

🕒 8. What the Books May Not Have Priced

LOW - No late scratches or lineup changes dated after the last line move are present in the intelligence.

⚡ 9. Why the Other Side Is Priced Where It Is

Ipswich Town's price reflects a newly promoted side that conceded five goals to Manchester United at home, showing they cannot contain top attacking sides; their only win came against Sunderland, and they have no recent result suggesting they can upset Liverpool.

PillarLab

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