Ipswich Town vs Liverpool
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeplgame/ipswich-town-vs-liverpool/KXEPLGAME-26SEP04IPSLFC?utm_source=kalshiapp_eventdetails
PillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLab📊 Market Summary
⚽ Ipswich Town vs Liverpool
| Team/Player | Current Odds |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | 65% |
| Tie | 20% |
| Ipswich Town | 17% |
3 options total
PillarLab🎯 Best Trade
-
Action: Liverpool — YES @ 65%
-
Confidence: 🔴 LOW · Uncertainty: LOW
-
Why: 50 sharp books price Liverpool between 60 and 63 (Pinnacle 62, DraftKings 62, FanDuel 63, BetMGM 61, Caesars (WH) 62, Betfair 63, Betfair UK 63, BetRivers 63, Bovada 62, BetOnline 62, LowVig 62, Marathonbet 63, Unibet FR 61, Unibet NL 63, Unibet SE 63, William Hill 60, Betway 62, Coral 61, 888sport 60, Fanatics 61, BetAnySports 62, Betclic 63, Betsson 62, BetUS 62, Coolbet 63, GTbets 62, LeoVegas 63, Matchbook 63, MyBookie 62, NordicBet 62, 1xBet 63, Tipico 63, Winamax 62, Winamax FR 62, leovegas 62, codere_it 62, betfred_uk 62, unibet_uk 63, paddypower 62, skybet 62, smarkets 63, boylesports 61, betvictor 63, betano_uk 63, virginbet 62, casumo 63, livescorebet 62, grosvenor 63, pmu_fr 62, ladbrokes_uk 61). Consensus, vig removed: 62.3%. The market has Liverpool at 65%. The market is 2.7 points above the books, so you pay a little over fair. Still the right side.
Line move since our first snapshot: Liverpool 57.9% to 62.3%. Money moved toward Liverpool.
- Why Ipswich Town is priced where it is (17%):
- Lost 5-2 at home to Manchester United on Aug 30, conceding five goals, showing defensive frailty against top sides.
- Their only win came against Sunderland, a weaker opponent, and they have no recent result against a top-six side.
- Liverpool have won both recent meetings (2-0 and 4-1), with Salah scoring in each.
📐 What would change this call: if the market drops Liverpool 5+ points under the books it becomes a HIGH-confidence discount. If the top books split by more than 5 points, or a starter is scratched, it goes to HOLD.
PillarLab🏦 What the Books Say
Percent is the number the call runs on. American odds in parentheses are the same price, shown the way a sportsbook shows it.
| Book | Liverpool | Ipswich Town | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 62.3% (-183) | 17.9% (+438) | 19.8% (+387) |
| DraftKings | 61.7% (-185) | 18.1% (+425) | 20.2% (+370) |
| FanDuel | 62.6% (-190) | 17.1% (+460) | 20.3% (+370) |
| BetMGM | 60.7% (-210) | 18.7% (+380) | 20.7% (+333) |
| Caesars (WH) | 61.6% (-190) | 17.9% (+425) | 20.4% (+360) |
| Betfair | 63.3% (-175) | 16.9% (+490) | 19.9% (+400) |
| Betfair UK | 63.3% (-175) | 16.9% (+490) | 19.9% (+400) |
| BetRivers | 62.8% (-195) | 17% (+460) | 20.2% (+370) |
| Bovada | 62% (-186) | 17.7% (+440) | 20.3% (+370) |
| BetOnline | 62.3% (-182) | 17.9% (+440) | 19.8% (+388) |
| LowVig | 62.3% (-182) | 17.9% (+440) | 19.8% (+388) |
| Marathonbet | 62.6% (-182) | 17.5% (+455) | 20% (+385) |
| Unibet FR | 61.2% (-208) | 18.1% (+400) | 20.6% (+340) |
| Unibet NL | 63.1% (-186) | 16.7% (+480) | 20.2% (+380) |
| Unibet SE | 63.1% (-186) | 16.7% (+480) | 20.2% (+380) |
| William Hill | 60.2% (-182) | 18.6% (+400) | 21.2% (+340) |
| Betway | 61.9% (-200) | 18.6% (+400) | 19.5% (+375) |
| Coral | 61.2% (-200) | 18.4% (+400) | 20.4% (+350) |
| 888sport | 60.4% (-188) | 18.5% (+400) | 21% (+340) |
| Fanatics | 60.9% (-180) | 18% (+425) | 21.1% (+350) |
| BetAnySports | 62.3% (-182) | 17.9% (+440) | 19.8% (+388) |
| Betclic | 63.1% (-200) | 17.2% (+450) | 19.7% (+380) |
| Betsson | 62.3% (-192) | 16.5% (+475) | 21.3% (+345) |
| BetUS | 62.3% (-180) | 17.9% (+440) | 19.8% (+390) |
| Coolbet | 63.2% (-182) | 16.9% (+480) | 20% (+390) |
| GTbets | 62.4% (-197) | 17.4% (+440) | 20.2% (+366) |
| LeoVegas | 62.5% (-195) | 16.9% (+460) | 20.6% (+360) |
| Matchbook | 63% (-175) | 16.8% (+490) | 20.2% (+390) |
| MyBookie | 61.9% (-200) | 17.9% (+420) | 20.2% (+360) |
| NordicBet | 62.3% (-192) | 16.5% (+475) | 21.3% (+345) |
| 1xBet | 62.5% (-174) | 17.5% (+463) | 20% (+392) |
| Tipico | 62.9% (-200) | 16.6% (+470) | 20.5% (+360) |
| Winamax | 62.2% (-200) | 18.3% (+410) | 19.5% (+380) |
| Winamax FR | 62% (-200) | 18.6% (+400) | 19.4% (+380) |
| leovegas | 61.6% (-189) | 17.9% (+425) | 20.5% (+360) |
| codere_it | 62.4% (-189) | 17.7% (+440) | 19.9% (+380) |
| betfred_uk | 61.8% (-188) | 17.2% (+450) | 21% (+350) |
| unibet_uk | 62.6% (-192) | 17.3% (+450) | 20.1% (+375) |
| paddypower | 62.3% (-200) | 17% (+450) | 20.8% (+350) |
| skybet | 61.8% (-200) | 17.6% (+425) | 20.6% (+350) |
| smarkets | 63.3% (-175) | 16.9% (+490) | 19.9% (+400) |
| boylesports | 60.5% (-182) | 18.7% (+400) | 20.8% (+350) |
| betvictor | 63% (-200) | 16.4% (+475) | 20.5% (+360) |
| betano_uk | 63% (-200) | 16.4% (+475) | 20.5% (+360) |
| virginbet | 61.8% (-200) | 17.2% (+440) | 21.1% (+340) |
| casumo | 62.8% (-195) | 17% (+460) | 20.2% (+370) |
| livescorebet | 62% (-213) | 17.3% (+425) | 20.7% (+340) |
| grosvenor | 62.8% (-195) | 17% (+460) | 20.2% (+370) |
| pmu_fr | 62.1% (-200) | 17.2% (+440) | 20.7% (+350) |
| ladbrokes_uk | 61.2% (-200) | 18.4% (+400) | 20.4% (+350) |
| Consensus, vig removed | 62.3% | 17.5% | 20.3% |
52 sportsbooks priced this game. Spread across the top 50 on Liverpool: 2.9 pts (books agree). Best price: Liverpool -174 at 1xBet · Ipswich Town +490 at Betfair · Tie +400 at Betfair.
PillarLab📈 Where the Market Stands
| Option | Market | Book Consensus | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 65% | 62.3% | +2.7 pts | ⚪ FAIR PRICE |
| Tie | 20% | 20.3% | -0.3 pts | ⚪ FAIR PRICE |
| Ipswich Town | 17% | 17.5% | -0.5 pts | ⚪ FAIR PRICE |
Gap is market minus book consensus. Negative means the market is cheaper than the books, that is the discount we look for. 5 or more points cheaper is where the edge lives. 5 or more points over is overpaying.
PillarLab🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Sharp Trading Method)
🏦 1. Book Consensus
Consensus of 52 sportsbooks, vig removed: Liverpool 62.3%, Ipswich Town 17.5%, Tie 20.3%. Pinnacle: Liverpool 62.3%, Ipswich Town 17.9%, Tie 19.8%. Spread across the top books on Liverpool: 2.9 pts (books agree).
📈 2. Form & Head-to-Head
Ipswich Town lost 5-2 at home to Manchester United on Aug 30, having won 2-1 at Sunderland in their opener; Liverpool have drawn 2-2 at Newcastle and 2-2 vs Nottingham Forest, remaining unbeaten but winless.
🏥 3. Injury Report
No specific injury or suspension information is available for either side; the preview notes Liverpool's defensive concerns but names no players.
🧾 4. Starters & Lineups
No confirmed starting lineups have been announced for this match; the last line move occurred before any team news would be public.
📰 5. Recent News (48h)
Nothing material in the last 48 hours beyond the general preview and the 5-2 defeat for Ipswich.
🌤️ 6. Situational Factors
Ipswich Town are at home at Portman Road; Liverpool travel, but have superior squad depth and Premier League pedigree.
🔀 7. Line Movement
Since our first snapshot (2026-08-23 16:05 UTC): Liverpool 57.9% to 62.3%, Ipswich Town 18.6% to 17.5%, Tie 23.6% to 20.3%. Money moved toward Liverpool.
🕒 8. What the Books May Not Have Priced
LOW - No late scratches or lineup changes dated after the last line move are present in the intelligence.
⚡ 9. Why the Other Side Is Priced Where It Is
Ipswich Town's price reflects a newly promoted side that conceded five goals to Manchester United at home, showing they cannot contain top attacking sides; their only win came against Sunderland, and they have no recent result suggesting they can upset Liverpool.
PillarLab⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice. Do your own research before placing any trades.
Stop guessing. See the edge.
Paste any Kalshi or Polymarket market. PillarLab runs a full 9-pillar analysis and hands you a Best Trade call in about 30 seconds.
Free to start · 10 credits · no card
PillarLab AI is an AI prediction-market analyzer that runs a 9-pillar analysis on Kalshi and Polymarket markets and publishes a public, settlement-verified track record of its decisive calls.