Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 28?
https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-tel-aviv-on-august-28-2026
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🌦️ Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 28?
| Outcome | Current Odds |
|---|---|
| 33°C | 71.5% |
| 32°C | 15% |
| 34°C | 13% |
| 31°C | 2% |
| 35°C | 0.5% |
| 29°C or below | 0.2% |
| 30°C | 0.2% |
| 36°C | 0.2% |
8 options total
PillarLab🎯 Best Trade
-
Action: 33°C — YES @ 71.5%
-
Confidence: 🔴 LOW · Uncertainty: MEDIUM
-
Why:
- If the ensemble mean is slightly below the point forecast, 32°C is a natural landing zone.
- Coastal moderation in Tel Aviv can keep highs from overshooting, making a one-degree downward miss plausible.
- The market may be underpricing the probability of a cooler-than-forecast outcome given the uncertainty.
PillarLab📈 Where the Market Stands
| Option | Market | Read |
|---|---|---|
| 33°C | 71.5% | 🔴 OVERPRICED |
| 32°C | 15% | 🟢 UNDERPRICED |
| 34°C | 13% | 🟢 UNDERPRICED |
Verdicts compare my own read against the market price — 🟢 UNDERPRICED (market has it too low) · 🔴 OVERPRICED (market has it too high). The analysis below is the why.
PillarLab🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Meteorological Method)
🌡️ 1. Forecast Consensus
My Vegas Line reads 33°C as the clear favorite at 71.5%, with 32°C and 34°C as the main alternatives.
📊 2. Ensemble Spread
Ensemble spread is not directly verified, but model documentation indicates uncertainty grows with lead time, suggesting the market may be overconfident in a single bucket.
⏳ 3. Forecast Skill Decay
The market is pricing 71.5% on a specific daily high, but at a lead time where forecast skill is moderate and a 1°C miss is plausible.
📈 4. Historical Base Rate
Historical base rates for exact temperature buckets are not available, but late-August Tel Aviv climatology supports low-30s Celsius as the center of mass.
🔀 5. Model Divergence
If the ECMWF/GFS consensus is wrong by a degree, the 33°C scenario dies in favor of 32°C or 34°C, which are the main alternatives.
📍 6. Micro-Climate Bias
Tel Aviv's coastal location can moderate highs compared to inland areas, but no specific station bias is identified in the intelligence.
🌀 7. Storm Track
No storm track is relevant; the main risk is a synoptic pattern shift that cools or warms the region, but no such shift is indicated.
💰 8. Market Pricing
MEDIUM - The market is heavily favoring 33°C, but the lack of verified primary model data and the inherent uncertainty in daily temperature forecasts suggest the price may be slightly too high.
⚡ 9. Contrarian Check
The main contrarian risk is that the 33°C forecast is based on a secondary source and could be off by a degree, making 32°C or 34°C more likely than the market implies.
PillarLab⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice, and not a meteorological forecast — verify against NWS/NOAA and current model output before placing any trades.
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