Highest temperature in San Antonio on Jul 16, 2026?
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhightsatx/san-antonio-daily-maximum-temperature/kxhightsatx-26jul16
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🌦️ Highest temperature in San Antonio on Jul 16, 2026?
| Outcome | Current Odds |
|---|---|
| 87° to 88° | 69% |
| 89° to 90° | 42% |
| 91° or above | 2% |
| 82° or below | 1% |
| 85° to 86° | 1% |
| 83° to 84° | 1% |
6 options total
PillarLab🎯 Best Trade
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Action: 87° to 88° — YES @ 69%
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Confidence: 🔴 LOW · Uncertainty: HIGH
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Why:
- The only available forecast high is 87°F, which is below this range.
- No data supports a high in the 89-90°F range.
- The 42% price appears inflated given the forecast consensus.
PillarLab📈 Where the Market Stands
| Option | Market | Read |
|---|---|---|
| 87° to 88° | 69% | 🟢 FAVORED |
| 89° to 90° | 42% | 🔴 TRAILING |
| 91° or above | 2% | 🔴 TRAILING |
I price with the market — 🟢 favored · 🔴 trailing. The analysis below is the why.
PillarLab🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Meteorological Method)
🌡️ 1. Forecast Consensus
The Weather Underground forecast for Jul 16, 2026 in San Antonio is a high of 87°F, which directly aligns with the 87-88°F bucket, supporting the 69% market price.
📊 2. Ensemble Spread
No ensemble spread data is available, but a single forecast suggests narrow confidence around 87°F, making the wide 42% on 89-90°F appear overconfident.
⏳ 3. Forecast Skill Decay
The forecast is for a single day ahead, well within the reliable range of medium-range models, so skill decay is minimal.
📈 4. Historical Base Rate
Historical base rates for San Antonio on July 16 are not provided; climatologically, highs often reach the upper 90s, but the forecast deviates cooler, lowering the probability of 89-90°F.
🔀 5. Model Divergence
No model divergence data is available; the single forecast of 87°F can be considered the consensus.
📍 6. Micro-Climate Bias
San Antonio is inland with a micro-climate influenced by urban heat island effects, but no station-specific bias is reported to adjust the forecast.
🌀 7. Storm Track
No storm track is relevant for a temperature forecast; the absence of tropical systems reduces the chance of cloud cover dampening the high.
💰 8. Market Pricing
HIGH - The 69% on 87-88°F matches the forecast, but the 42% on 89-90°F appears overpriced relative to the sole forecast of 87°F, indicating market inefficiency.
⚡ 9. Contrarian Check
The primary contrarian risk is a sudden heat dome or model error pushing temperatures into the 89-90°F range, which the forecast currently discounts.
PillarLab⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice, and not a meteorological forecast — verify against NWS/NOAA and current model output before placing any trades.
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