Highest temperature in NYC on July 31?
https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-31-2026
PillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLab📊 Market Summary
🌦️ Highest temperature in NYC on July 31?
| Outcome | Current Odds |
|---|---|
| 84-85°F | 41.5% |
| 86-87°F | 36.5% |
| 82-83°F | 12.5% |
| 88-89°F | 5.5% |
| 80-81°F | 3.5% |
| 90-91°F | 2% |
| 78-79°F | 1.5% |
| 92-93°F | 0.5% |
8 options total
PillarLab🎯 Best Trade
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Action: 82-83°F — YES @ 12.5%
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Confidence: 🟡 MEDIUM · Uncertainty: MEDIUM
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Why — the case against 84-85°F:
- Visible short-range NWS highs near 84°F support this bucket, but July 31 is beyond the forecast window and the normal high is only 78°F.
- No direct model guidance for July 31 exists, making the 41.5% odds overconfident for an 8-day-out forecast.
PillarLab📈 Where the Market Stands
| Option | Market | Read |
|---|---|---|
| 84-85°F | 41.5% | 🔴 OVERPRICED |
| 86-87°F | 36.5% | 🔴 OVERPRICED |
| 82-83°F | 12.5% | 🟢 UNDERPRICED |
Verdicts compare my own read against the market price — 🟢 UNDERPRICED (market has it too low) · 🔴 OVERPRICED (market has it too high). The analysis below is the why.
PillarLab🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Meteorological Method)
🌡️ 1. Forecast Consensus
NWS short-range outlook shows highs near 84°F for later July days, but no direct July 31 point forecast is available; the market's top buckets align with this pattern but at above-normal levels.
📊 2. Ensemble Spread
Ensemble spread is unknown at this lead time, but the lack of a specific July 31 forecast implies higher uncertainty than the tight market distribution suggests.
⏳ 3. Forecast Skill Decay
Forecasts for 9+ days out have historically large errors; the market's concentrated pricing on 84-85°F and 86-87°F overstates certainty for a 7-day-ahead forecast.
📈 4. Historical Base Rate
The July 31 normal high at Central Park is 78°F, making the 84-85°F and 86-87°F buckets 6-9°F above normal; climatologically, such warm outcomes are less frequent than the market implies.
🔀 5. Model Divergence
With no model divergence available for July 31, the biggest risk is that a cooler-than-expected pattern (unseen in the short-range) shifts the outcome to lower buckets.
📍 6. Micro-Climate Bias
Central Park's urban heat island effect can add 1-3°F, but this is already partially reflected in the market's warm bias; micro-climate alone does not justify the current odds.
🌀 7. Storm Track
No storm tracks are active; synoptic patterns could shift, but no specific track would kill the priced-in scenario without model guidance.
💰 8. Market Pricing
MEDIUM - The market is liquid but the long lead time means the price reflects expectation of warmth from similar dates rather than hard data; the large gap between top two suggests uncertainty.
⚡ 9. Contrarian Check
The market has overshot toward warm scenarios based on a short-range pattern that may not persist; the main contrarian risk is a reversion to near-normal (82-83°F or lower).
PillarLab⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice, and not a meteorological forecast — verify against NWS/NOAA and current model output before placing any trades.
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