Highest temperature in Newark on Sep 11, 2026?

📊 Market Summary

🌦️ Highest temperature in Newark on Sep 11, 2026?

6 options total

🎯 Best Trade

• Action: 82° to 83° — YES @ 71%

• Confidence: 🔴 LOW · Uncertainty: LOW

• Why:

• The dominant signal is cooling: a 'passing weather system looks to unlock drier and more seasonable feeling airmass heading into the weekend,' which argues against the top reaching the mid-80s.
• The only concrete number pointing higher is a single Facebook forecast of 92°F for Newark Sep 11, and the 88°+ bucket is priced at just 1%, implying the market sees the top well below 88°.
• No hard station observation for Sep 11 appears in the results, so the 26% is a residual probability for a slower/weaker cooldown rather than an evidenced forecast.

📈 Where the Market Stands

Verdicts compare my own read against the market price — 🟢 UNDERPRICED (market has it too low) · 🔴 OVERPRICED (market has it too high). The analysis below is the why.

🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Meteorological Method)

🌡️ 1. Forecast Consensus

My Vegas Line reads the 82–83° bucket as the clear favorite at 71%, with the 84–85° bucket the only real alternative at 26% — no model output (GFS/ECMWF/NWS) is present in the gathered intelligence to confirm or challenge that split.

📊 2. Ensemble Spread

No GEFS/ensemble spread data exists in the intelligence, so the market's 71/26 concentration cannot be checked against actual model dispersion — a genuine gap in the evidence, not a proven overconfidence.

⏳ 3. Forecast Skill Decay

This is a same-day/next-day market (Sep 11 high, resolved Sep 12) where forecast skill is historically high, so the market's confidence is not a horizon-decay problem.

📈 4. Historical Base Rate

The only date-specific historical reading found is Newark's 93°F on Sep 11, 1961, which sits in the 88°+ bucket — but a single year is not a base rate, and no climatological normal for mid-September Newark appears in the results.

🔀 5. Model Divergence

No competing model scenarios are available to test; the only divergence in the data is a lone Facebook forecast of 92°F against the dominant cooling signal, and that outlier is what the 88°+ bucket at 1% would need to be right.

📍 6. Micro-Climate Bias

KEWR is the official CLIEWR climate site, an airport station with a modest urban-heat-island influence versus downtown Newark — a station-specific factor that can nudge the daily max a degree or two but is not quantified in the intelligence.

🌀 7. Storm Track

Not a tropical or severe-weather contract; no NHC track or cone applies, and no active watches/warnings for Newark appear in the results.

💰 8. Market Pricing

LOW - the market is thin (929 volume) and the gathered intelligence contains no actual Newark Sep 11 high, no model output, and no ensemble spread, so cross-platform or sharp-money confirmation is unavailable.

⚡ 9. Contrarian Check

The main contrarian risk is that the cooling narrative ('drier and more seasonable' airmass) is being over-read: if the passing system is slower or weaker than assumed, the high could land in the 84–85° bucket, which is the only realistic alternative to the priced favorite.

⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice, and not a meteorological forecast — verify against NWS/NOAA and current model output before placing any trades.