Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 11, 2026?

📊 Market Summary

🌦️ Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 11, 2026?

6 options total

🎯 Best Trade

• Action: 84° to 85° — YES @ 89%

• Confidence: 🟡 MEDIUM · Uncertainty: MEDIUM

• Why:

• The NWS point forecast for Sep 11 is 86°F, which falls exactly in this band — the official forecast supports this outcome.
• The station has already reached 84.9°F today, just 1.1°F below the 86° threshold, making this band a live possibility with any additional warming.
• Raw model output (GFS 88°F, ECMWF 91°F, ICON 87.9°F) all exceed 86°F, though these are grid-cell values that overstate coastal station temperatures.

📈 Where the Market Stands

Verdicts compare my own read against the market price — 🟢 UNDERPRICED (market has it too low) · 🔴 OVERPRICED (market has it too high). The analysis below is the why.

🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Meteorological Method)

🌡️ 1. Forecast Consensus

My Vegas Line reads 84-85°F as the heavy favorite at 89%, and the NWS point forecast of 86°F for Sep 11 sits right at the boundary — the market's own band structure implies the crowd expects the high to land at 84-85°F, not 86°+.

📊 2. Ensemble Spread

The raw model spread for Sep 11 is only 3.1°F (GFS 88, ECMWF 91, ICON 87.9), which is tight enough that a 2°F band call is defensible — but the spread is entirely on the warm side of the NWS point forecast, meaning the models disagree with the NWS about how hot it gets.

⏳ 3. Forecast Skill Decay

This is a same-day market (resolution date 2026-09-12, with the station already at 84.9°F at 19:30Z on Sep 11), so skill decay is not a factor — the observed data is the dominant signal.

📈 4. Historical Base Rate

No historical base-rate data for LA Sep 11 highs was available in the intelligence, but the observed station data (84.9°F high so far today) is a far stronger signal than any climatological base rate.

🔀 5. Model Divergence

The outlier model is ECMWF at 91°F for Sep 11 — if ECMWF is right, the 86°+ band wins and the 84-85° band dies; but ECMWF's 91°F is a raw grid-cell value that carries coastal station bias and is likely too warm for KLAX.

📍 6. Micro-Climate Bias

KLAX is a coastal station that reads far cooler than its grid cell (which picks up inland heat), so the raw model values of 88-91°F are almost certainly overstated for the airport — the NWS point forecast of 86°F is the better estimate.

🌀 7. Storm Track

Not applicable — this is a temperature market, not a storm-tracking contract; no NHC advisories are relevant to a Sep 11, 2026 LA high-temperature resolution.

💰 8. Market Pricing

MEDIUM - the market is liquid ($220K volume) and the 89% price on 84-85°F is well-supported by the observed 84.9°F high and the NWS point forecast of 86°F, but the 13% on 86°+ may be slightly rich given the observed data already shows 84.9°F and the NWS forecast is 86°F.

⚡ 9. Contrarian Check

The main contrarian risk is that the observed 84.9°F high so far today is already at the top of the 84-85° band, and if the station ticks up even 0.2°F more before the day ends, the 86°+ band wins — the 89% price may be slightly overconfident given the station is sitting right at the boundary.

⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice, and not a meteorological forecast — verify against NWS/NOAA and current model output before placing any trades.