Highest temperature in LA on Jul 25, 2026?
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhighlax/highest-temperature-in-los-angeles?utm_source=kalshiweb_eventpage
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🌦️ Highest temperature in LA on Jul 25, 2026?
| Outcome | Current Odds |
|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 46% |
| 81° to 82° | 29% |
| 78° or below | 18% |
| 83° to 84° | 6% |
| 87° or above | 3% |
| 85° to 86° | 2% |
6 options total
PillarLab🎯 Best Trade
-
Action: 79° to 80° — YES @ 46%
-
Confidence: 🟡 MEDIUM · Uncertainty: LOW
-
Why:
- NWS snippet shows 81°F early, but later hours dropped to 78-77°F, reducing chance of 81-82°F high.
- Recent July climate includes 81°F as a realized high, but the day's trend suggests a lower peak.
- Marine layer often prevents temperatures from climbing above 80°F at LAX.
PillarLab📈 Where the Market Stands
| Option | Market | Read |
|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 46% | 🟢 FAVORED |
| 81° to 82° | 29% | 🔴 TRAILING |
| 78° or below | 18% | 🔴 TRAILING |
I price with the market — 🟢 favored · 🔴 trailing. The analysis below is the why.
PillarLab🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Meteorological Method)
🌡️ 1. Forecast Consensus
NWS digital forecast for Jul 25 shows temperatures around 81°F early then 78-77°F, implying a high in the upper 70s to low 80s, aligning with the market favorite 79-80°F.
📊 2. Ensemble Spread
Only a point forecast snippet available, showing a 77-81°F range (4° spread); typical for coastal LA and not wider than the market's confident 46% on 79-80°F.
⏳ 3. Forecast Skill Decay
Forecast lead time is ~1 day; short-term predictions have high skill, so the market's 46% on 79-80°F is reasonable and not overconfident.
📈 4. Historical Base Rate
Historical July highs at LAX frequently fall in the upper 70s to low 80s (e.g., 78, 81, 83, 84°F recorded), supporting 79-80°F as a common outcome base rate.
🔀 5. Model Divergence
No GFS/ECMWF deterministic values found; only NWS available, so the scenario where a warmer model is right (83-84°F) would kill the market favorite.
📍 6. Micro-Climate Bias
LAX is coastal; marine layer often caps highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, consistent with the market pricing 79-80°F as most likely.
🌀 7. Storm Track
Not applicable; no tropical or severe weather event relevant.
💰 8. Market Pricing
LOW - No cross-platform pricing available; market shows moderate volume (9674) but no external reference to confirm or contest the current odds.
⚡ 9. Contrarian Check
The trailing side (78° or below) could win if marine layer persists, but the market prices that at 18% already, reflecting the NWS forecast's cooler hours.
PillarLab⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice, and not a meteorological forecast — verify against NWS/NOAA and current model output before placing any trades.
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