3M Open Winner
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpgatour/pga-tour/kxpgatour-3mo26
PillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLabPillarLab📊 Market Summary
⚽ 3M Open Winner
| Team/Player | Current Odds |
|---|---|
| Jackson Koivun | 31% |
| Michael Brennan | 14% |
| Ben Kohles | 14% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 12% |
| Michael Kim | 8% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 8% |
| Denny McCarthy | 4% |
| Billy Horschel | 3% |
| Davis Thompson | 2% |
| Seamus Power | 2% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 2% |
| Chandler Phillips | 2% |
| Gary Woodland | 1% |
| Brian Harman | 1% |
| Zac Blair | 1% |
| Lee Hodges | 1% |
| Ben Silverman | 0% |
| Brian Campbell | 0% |
| Adam Hadwin | 0% |
| Ryder Cowan | 0% |
| Tyler Duncan | 0% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0% |
| Luke Clanton | 0% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 0% |
| Justin Lower | 0% |
| Cameron Davis | 0% |
| Benjamin James | 0% |
| Aaron Wise | 0% |
| Preston Stout | 0% |
| Mac Meissner | 0% |
| Doug Ghim | 0% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 0% |
| Charley Hoffman | 0% |
| Tony Finau | 0% |
| Harry Higgs | 0% |
| Tom Hoge | 0% |
| Karl Vilips | 0% |
| William Mouw | 0% |
| Nick Dunlap | 0% |
| Max Homa | 0% |
| Max McGreevy | 0% |
| Sungjae Im | 0% |
| Steven Fisk | 0% |
| Garrick Higgo | 0% |
| Ryan Brehm | 0% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 0% |
| Jeevan Sihota | 0% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% |
| Griffin Wood | 0% |
| Andrew Putnam | 0% |
| Nick Hardy | 0% |
| Kensei Hirata | 0% |
| Brice Garnett | 0% |
| Rafael Campos | 0% |
| Thomas Campbell | 0% |
| Cameron Champ | 0% |
| Joe Highsmith | 0% |
| Patton Kizzire | 0% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 0% |
| Hayden Springer | 0% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 0% |
| Keita Nakajima | 0% |
| Gordon Sargent | 0% |
| Ben Martin | 0% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0% |
| Luke List | 0% |
| Paul Peterson | 0% |
| Stefano Mazzoli | 0% |
| Christo Lamprecht | 0% |
| Davis Riley | 0% |
| Chad Ramey | 0% |
| Jeremy Paul | 0% |
| David Skinns | 0% |
| Taylor Moore | 0% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 0% |
| Adam Schenk | 0% |
| Peter Malnati | 0% |
| Sihan Sandhu | 0% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 0% |
| Matt Kuchar | 0% |
| Nicholas Lindheim | 0% |
| Brannon Fahrny | 0% |
| Cooper Schultz | 0% |
| Dylan Wu | 0% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0% |
| Danny Walker | 0% |
| Alejandro Tosti | 0% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 0% |
| Ryan Fox | 0% |
| Seung-Yul Noh | 0% |
| Marcelo Rozo | 0% |
| Chris Kirk | 0% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 0% |
| Mark Hubbard | 0% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0% |
| Austin Eckroat | 0% |
| Beau Hossler | 0% |
| Corey Conners | 0% |
| Hank Lebioda | 0% |
| Fabian Gomez | 0% |
| Zachary Bauchou | 0% |
| Sam Stevens | 0% |
| Zecheng Dou | 0% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 0% |
| Neal Shipley | 0% |
| Kevin Roy | 0% |
| Troy Merritt | 0% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 0% |
| Max Greyserman | 0% |
| Ricky Castillo | 0% |
| Camilo Villegas | 0% |
| Lucas Glover | 0% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 0% |
| Maverick McNealy | 0% |
| Rico Hoey | 0% |
| Kevin Yu | 0% |
| Vince Whaley | 0% |
| Jake Knapp | 0% |
| Casey Jarvis | 0% |
| John Parry | 0% |
| Kris Ventura | 0% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 0% |
| John VanDerLaan | 0% |
| Jeffrey Kang | 0% |
| Muzzy Donohue | 0% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 0% |
| A.J. Ewart | 0% |
| Matti Schmid | 0% |
| Davis Chatfield | 0% |
| Will Gordon | 0% |
| Lanto Griffin | 0% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 0% |
| Kevin Streelman | 0% |
| Keith Mitchell | 0% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 0% |
| Trace Crowe | 0% |
| Jesper Svensson | 0% |
| Austin Smotherman | 0% |
| Joel Dahmen | 0% |
| Tom Kim | 0% |
| Chandler Blanchet | 0% |
| David Lipsky | 0% |
| Adam Svensson | 0% |
| Jason Day | 0% |
| Jackson Suber | 0% |
| Johnny Keefer | 0% |
147 options total
PillarLab🎯 Best Trade
-
Action: Jackson Koivun — YES @ 31%
-
Confidence: 🟡 MEDIUM · Uncertainty: HIGH
-
Why: Michael Brennan and Ben Kohles sit at 14% each partly due to the market's reliance on their live leaderboard positions rather than sustained season form. Brennan has made only 1 top-10 in 17 PGA TOUR starts this year, and Kohles' pre-event odds (+6500) signal surprise at his contention. Neither has the track record of a Scottie Scheffler, and both need to convert a 54-hole position into a win over a chasing field that includes world No. 1.
PillarLab📋 Why Each Contender Can Fall Short
You don't need to call the winner. In a 147-outcome field, most names simply don't win — so the useful read is why each top contender can fall short. Ranked by the market, with the fact-based case against each:
1. Jackson Koivun — 31%
- Limited PGA TOUR sample as a rookie with only a T10 and T34 in two starts
- Not leading the tournament during the final round; sits at T3 as of latest leaderboard
- Pre-event sportsbook odds implied only 2.8% chance, reflecting longshot status
2. Michael Brennan — 14%
- Only 1 top-10 in 17 PGA TOUR starts in 2026, with 11/17 cuts made
- Not the outright leader on the live leaderboard; in contention but not ahead
- Pre-event odds at +6500 imply low market confidence in a win
3. Ben Kohles — 14%
- Pre-event odds at +6500 signal surprise at his leaderboard position
- Lacks sustained season-long elite form beyond this hot tournament
- Multiple strong contenders still ahead or equal on the live leaderboard
PillarLab📈 Where the Market Stands
| Option | Market | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Koivun | 31% | 🟢 FAVORED |
| Michael Brennan | 14% | 🔴 TRAILING |
| Ben Kohles | 14% | 🔴 TRAILING |
I price with the market — 🟢 favored · 🔴 trailing. The analysis below is the why.
PillarLab🔬 9-Pillar Analysis (Sharp Trading Method)
📊 1. Vegas Line
My Vegas Line has Jackson Koivun at 31% market odds, while the wider betting market's implied probability is only 2.8%, a difference that reflects the thin liquidity of this prediction market compared to traditional sportsbooks.
📈 2. PillarScore
With only 2-3 games per candidate, the recent form sample is too small for a confident read; Koivun's T10 and Brennan's current contention at the 3M Open are positive but inconclusive.
🏥 3. Injury Report
Clean bill of health for listed contenders; no injury issues surfaced in available PGA TOUR coverage.
📱 4. Reddit Sentiment
Reddit sentiment data is not publicly available for this niche market; no hype or crowd bias can be measured.
🔢 5. Team Stats & Form
No team stats apply; recent form: Koivun T10 at ISCO, Brennan in contention at 3M Open, Kohles T2 live at -11, but sample too thin for reliable trend.
🌤️ 6. Situational Factors
TPC Twin Cities hosts; Scottie Scheffler is the pre-tournament favorite but live leaderboard shows Michael Kim (-14), Ben Kohles (-11), and Koivun (-10) in contention; no travel or venue-specific disadvantage surfaced.
💰 7. Handle Split (Public vs Sharp)
Handle split data is not publicly available for this market; no sharp/public divergence can be identified.
⏰ 8. Time Decay
HIGH - The market is live during the final round; leaderboard updates are rapidly re-pricing contenders, making pre-event odds stale quickly.
⚡ 9. Contrarian Check
The market is heavily concentrated on longshots (Koivun 31%), but the betting market's favorite Scottie Scheffler (12% here) could be undervalued given his consistent major-contending form.
PillarLab⚠️ Disclaimer: AI can make mistakes. This is not financial advice. Do your own research before placing any trades.
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