Archetype Defense Efficiency

What It Does

It categorizes every NBA player into distinct offensive archetypes using tracking data (e.g., Isolation Scorer, Pick-and-Roll Ball Handler, Spot-Up Shooter). It then calculates a defense's specific efficiency metrics (Points Per Possession, Effective Field Goal %) allowed against each archetype, isolating weaknesses that broad positional stats obscure.

Why It Matters

Sportsbooks often set lines based on general defensive rankings (e.g., 'Team X is 5th vs Centers'). However, a team might defend post-ups well but get destroyed by shooting big men. This nuance creates significant edge opportunities in player prop markets.

How It Works

Utilizes K-Means clustering on offensive tracking variables (avg shot distance, dribbles per touch, time of possession) to define archetypes. Defensive efficiency is calculated via allowed Points Per Possession (PPP) and adjusted for pace (Pace-Adjusted Defensive Rating) and opponent usage rate deviations.

Key Indicators Analyzed

• Archetype PPP Allowed
• Foul Rate vs Archetype
• 3PT% Allowed by Zone

Data Sources

• NBA Advanced Stats
• Second Spectrum

Details

Category

sports

Subcategory

nba

Try This Pillar

Use the Archetype Defense Efficiency pillar in PillarLab to analyze any prediction market.