Rolling xG Differential Trend

What It Does

It calculates the difference between a team's Expected Goals For (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA) for each of the last 5 to 10 matches. By plotting this differential over time, it reveals the true trajectory of a team's performance. This method separates process from outcome, ignoring lucky goals or exceptional goalkeeping.

Why It Matters

Match results can be misleading due to variance and luck. This pillar cuts through that noise by focusing on the quality of chances created and conceded, offering a more stable and predictive measure of team strength and momentum than simple win/loss records.

How It Works

The core metric is the 5-match rolling average of the xG Differential (xGD), calculated as (Sum of (xG_match - xGA_match) over last 5 matches) / 5. This smooths out single-game anomalies and highlights sustained performance shifts. A positive and rising trend is a strong bullish signal for a team.

Key Indicators Analyzed

• Rolling xG Differential
• Performance vs. Results Gap
• Trend Velocity

Data Sources

• FBref
• Understat
• Opta

Details

Category

sports

Subcategory

soccer

Try This Pillar

Use the Rolling xG Differential Trend pillar in PillarLab to analyze any prediction market.