MVP Dependency Factor

What It Does

The MVP Dependency Factor calculates a score by comparing a team's overall win percentage to its win percentage in games where its star player shoots below a specific threshold. It isolates the star's impact on winning, controlling for other variables. A high score indicates a fragile team structure heavily dependent on one player's performance.

Why It Matters

This provides a data-driven measure of a team's structural integrity, which is often overlooked by surface-level analysis. It gives a predictive edge in games where a star faces a tough defensive matchup or is known for inconsistent performances, helping to identify potential upsets.

How It Works

The Dependency Factor (DF) is calculated as: DF = (Overall Win % - Poor Night Win %). A 'Poor Night' is defined for a star player as any game with a Field Goal Percentage (FG%) below 40% on a minimum of 15 Field Goal Attempts (FGA). The analysis uses a rolling 82-game window to stay current.

Key Indicators Analyzed

• Dependency Score
• Star Usage Rate
• Supporting Cast EFG%

Data Sources

• Basketball-Reference
• NBA.com/stats

Details

Category

sports

Subcategory

nba

Try This Pillar

Use the MVP Dependency Factor pillar in PillarLab to analyze any prediction market.