Meta-Signal EV Synthesizer

What It Does

The synthesizer ingests a probability estimate, either from another pillar or your own analysis, and compares it against the current market price. It then computes the risk-adjusted expected value for both 'Yes' and 'No' sides of a market. This determines if the potential payout justifies the risk based on your belief.

Why It Matters

A correct prediction can still be a bad position if the price is too high. This pillar provides the crucial final step in any analysis, ensuring you only deploy capital in markets that are mathematically profitable over the long term.

How It Works

The core calculation uses the formula: EV = (Probability of Winning * Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing * Potential Loss). For a 'Yes' bet, this is (P_win * (1 - Price)) - ((1 - P_win) * Price). The pillar uses a default conviction threshold (e.g., EV > +0.05) to trigger a positive signal, filtering out low-value opportunities.

Key Indicators Analyzed

• Expected Value (EV)
• Value Threshold
• Price vs. Probability Gap

Data Sources

• Prediction Market APIs
• Other Pillar Outputs
• User-Defined Probabilities

Details

Category

universal

Subcategory

meta_analysis

Try This Pillar

Use the Meta-Signal EV Synthesizer pillar in PillarLab to analyze any prediction market.